Capital One Cup

Liverpool v Man City: Five frequent Capital One Cup final occurrences

Good news for Jurgen Klopp - the Capital One Cup final is very kind to first-time participants


"In the Premier League era, five foreign bosses have won the Capital One Cup in their first campaign, including two in the last three years: Michael Laudrup for Swansea in 2012/13 and Manuel Pellegrini for Manchester City in 2013/14."

To help steer Liverpool v Man City punters, Michael Lintorn notes five things that usually happen in Capital One Cup finals...

The existence of beginner's luck

In the Premier League era, five foreign bosses have won the Capital One Cup in their first campaign, including two in the last three years: Michael Laudrup for Swansea in 2012/13 and Manuel Pellegrini for Manchester City in 2013/14. Gianluca Vialli started the fashion in 1997/98. The only two to get to the final and fail were Rafael Benitez in 2004/05 and Avram Grant in 2007/08, and there was an easy explanation for their shortcomings: they were against fellow newcomers Jose Mourinho and Juande Ramos. Jurgen Klopp is 2.3211/8 to continue the trend less than five months into his Liverpool stay.


Liverpool usually offer a little extra

The Reds have contested four Capital One finals this century and three of those finished level after 90 minutes, with that 75% extra-time strike rate made all the more notable by the fact that a mere two of the 12 other finals in that period produced the same outcome, which equates to just 17%. The most recent two Liverpool showpieces - against Chelsea in 2005 and Cardiff in 2012 - were both extended from 90 minutes to 120 and were notable for delivering a combined five extra-time goals. It is 3.55/2 that the two teams are drawing at the end of regulation time again.


A steady stream of goals...

Arsenal improved the reputation of the FA Cup final as a spectacle by decorating both the 2014 and 2015 editions with a generous serving of goals, but before that it was a distant second to its Capital One companion in the entertainment stakes. Whereas five of the seven FA Cup deciders between 2007 and 2013 featured one goal or less, four of the past six League Cup finals have been graced by over 2.5 goals, with the two exceptions falling one short. Liverpool and Man City conjured three strikes or more in their latest eight meetings, and are 1.9620/21 to do the competition's tradition proud.


...which starts trickling nice and early

There has been a first-half goal in all bar one of the 16 Capital One Cup finals this century - the goalless draw between Manchester United and Tottenham in 2009. This offers two punting lessons: that the 0-0 half-time score is more of a lay than a back at 3.02/1 and that, even if this goes against the trend, a bet at the break on a 0-0 result at 90 minutes should put you back in profit. Three of the last four deadlock-breakers came in a minute beginning with "1" and you can bet on the opener coming between minutes 11 and 20 at 5.59/2.


Substitutes show their worth

In four of the six finals this decade, a player who emerged from the bench has worked his way onto the scoresheet. Wayne Rooney won it for Man United against Aston Villa in 2010, Obafemi Martins did likewise for Birmingham against Arsenal in 2011, Dirk Kuyt came on (admittedly in extra time) to net past Cardiff for Liverpool in 2012 and Jesus Navas applied the gloss to Man City's 3-1 victory over Sunderland in 2014. So don't discount an unlikely starter from your Last Goalscorer calculations.


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