Netherlands v Spain: Use Betfair Build-Ups to back 11/10 Yamal to outshoot Simons

• Spain strongly fancied to prevail in last eight affair

• Yamal a 11/102.11 shout to outshoot a lesser counterpart

• Simons sometimes brilliant but not consistently so

Netherlands v Spain
Nations League Quarter-Finals, First leg
Thursday March 20th, 2025
19:45 kick-off

Match-Ups - Yamal to have more SOT than Simons

Lamine Yamal missed the second half of Spain's Nations League group commitments, an ankle injury sidelining the wunderkind.

Prior to that, across two-and-a-half games, the 17-year-old ran riot, as he typically does every time he crosses the white paint.

In 225 minutes, against seriously stoic opposition in Serbia, Switzerland and Serbia, Yamal racked up six key passes, 12 successful dribbles, and took on 13 attempts on goal, finding the target on four occasions.

On the international stage it was an extension on his magnificent showings at Euro 2024, where the Barcelona prodigy in braces created 19 chances, completed 33 dribbles, and took on 18 shots.

It was in Germany where the Messi comparisons began in earnest, after being whispered up to that point, and given Yamal's remarkable numbers for Barca - 17 goal involvements in la Liga this term with his 18th birthday still six months away - it increasingly feels like a fair and realistic shout.

Indeed, his numbers at this early juncture of his career exceeds Messi's at a similar age.

So the big question then, as Yamal travels with La Roja to Rotterdam, and prepares to put on a Spain jersey tonight for the first time since October, is this: If it's possible to directly pit this very special talent against an inferior talent, and still get better than Evens, why on earth would you not want to take that bet?

In the Sportsbook, Yamal is 11/43.75 to have 1 or more shots on target in this Nations League Quarter-Final clash whereas Xavi Simons is 6/17.00 to do likewise. It's deemed to be twice as likely, give or take.

Yet in the brilliant Build-Ups tool, the teen is 11/102.11 to have more SOT than Simons. Quids in.

That is not to say of course that Simons is without merit. He too enjoyed an excellent Euros and the 21-year-old has had his moments in the Nations League also. Against Bosnia and Herzegovina he scored amidst a flurry of seven attempts on goal from the attacking midfielder, two on target.

And as the graphics below illustrate, the RB Leipzig star gets close to Yamal in some departments.

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Close though but no cigar.

Under Luis de la Fuente, Spain are unbeaten in 16, scoring 2.5 goals per 90 across a period that stretches to a full calendar year. They are 6/52.20 to win out this evening and take a precious advantage into the second leg scheduled for this Sunday.

Crucially too, Oranje have injuries at the back, to Dumfries and Ake.

If Yamal and Nico Williams successfully pin back Timber and Frimpong, the hosts could be in for a long evening. And what will almost inevitably follow is that a 17-year-old takes centre stage and the headlines. It's quickly becoming the norm now.

Now read Ste Tudor's England v Albania preview here