Italy v Germany: Use Betfair Build Ups to back Musiala at 9/5 to outfire Kean

• Germany's strong defence a factor in Milan

• I Viola striker Keen could be isolated and nullified

• Musiala backed at 9/52.80 to out-fire the Italian

Italy v Germany

Nations League Quarter-Final, First-Leg

Thursday March 20th, 2026

Live on Amazon Prime

Match Ups - Musiala to have more SOT than Kean

After comprehensively bossing their group - remaining unbeaten and averaging 2.3 goals per 90 - Germany now travel to Milan to take on a new-look Italy who have equally impressed in the tournament.

A defeat to France saw the Azzurri denied top spot in Group 2, missing out on goal difference, but performances prior to that were extremely positive, with Luciano Spalletti's switch to a back three suiting them.

Combine their Nations League exploits to date and it amounts to 10 wins, one draw and a solitary loss.

What we have here then are two in-form sides, and furthermore giants of the world stage, locking horns. It's regrettably therefore that injuries have weakened each.

For the Italians, Mateo Retegui is a significant loss, the Atalanta striker leaving the camp with a muscle problem. In his place Moise Kean is expected to step up, the Fiorentina star enjoying a tremendous campaign in Serie A with 15 goals and three assists.

Julian Nagelsmann's side meanwhile will greatly miss the magic of Florian Wirtz, but they at least still possess his creative cohort Jamal Musiala, the Bayern man bagging two in his last three starts for his country.

In one of those games - a trouncing of Hungary - Musiala also happened to conjure up a hat-trick of assists.

Both attackers could be pivotal tonight, and when looking at their numbers, there really isn't much to separate them.

Yet still, it's the 22-year-old joint winner of last year's Euro Golden Boot who should be backed. At a decent price too.

Powered by

Powered by

To an extent, the context of the respective teams and the fixture itself trumps the attributes of both individuals.

In Serie A this term, Kean has averaged a 43% shot accuracy and that's noteworthy for sure. The former Juventus forward is a threat and should he have Giacomo Raspadori to feed off that only adds to the danger he poses.

But Germany have kept clean sheets in half of their last 10 outings, nullifying some excellent centre-forwards along the way. Even with home advantage, it is negligible how many opportunities Kean can fashion, especially if he becomes isolated.

In sharp contrast, Italy have kept only one shut-out in their last 10 and that is a concern when facing a playmaker of Musiala's calibre.

In his last start for Die Manschaft, he took on three shots, one on target, with two key passes thrown in for good measure.

With memories of Germany's 5-2 thumping of Italy in 2022 still fresh it is entirely conceivable that Musiala can improve on those figures this evening. In that game, the hosts racked up six big chances and nine shots on target.

Not for nothing are Germany 13/82.63 to take a lead into the second leg on Sunday. 

Now read Ste Tudor's England v Albania preview here