Football Betting Masterclass

Betting On Football: How to profit backing under 2.5 goals

Liverpool defender Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk is key to Liverpool's defence

In part three of his expert guide to betting on football, Bet Angel's Peter Webb explains how to profit by backing under 2.5 goals on Betfair...

  • How to bet on under 2.5 goals
  • Place bets before kick-off
  • Watch match, odds and stats
  • Use Cash Out to boost profits

In this article, I will look at how we can improve our chances of winning an under 2.5 goal bet, by trading it.

If we are betting on under 2.5 goals, you can use the methods we have discussed in previous instalments of my football betting masterclass to identify matches which are more likely to have the lowest number of goals. That will significantly improve your ability to profit.

Once we have found that match, we can apply the strategy.

Cash Out boosts our options

If we place a back bet just before the start of the match on under 2.5 goals, we can take a profit by using the cash-out button during in-play. This is because the odds in a betting market have to reflect the true chance of something happening.

A match with no goals after 15 minutes will have shorter odds for under 2.5 goals than a market where a goal has already been scored. So you end up profiting not from whether a goal has been scored or not but from the time elapsed in the match.

As the match progresses without any goals, the odds shorten, presenting us with the opportunity to cash out for a profit. But better than that, even if a goal has been scored, it can still work in our favour.

This is best illustrated by a graph of under 2.5 goal markets.

Illustration 01 - No goals.png

In the first graph, we are looking at a match that hasn't seen any goals yet. To cash out for a profit, we need the odds to be below our initial back bet. The odds started a 2.206/5 and reached 1.251/4 by half-time. This would have allowed us to cash out for a £75 profit with a £100 stake.

Of course, you could have cashed out at any time during the first-half. The longer you wait, the more profit you will make, but there is also more chance of a goal. The quicker you cash out, the higher your chance of success.

A massive 90% of matches will not have a goal in the first five minutes, meaning if you trade rather than bet, you have a very good chance of cashing out for a profit.

Looking at the opposite scenario, we can see an interesting pattern develop.

Illustration 02 - Two goals.png

This match followed a similar pattern to the previous one, and it was 0-0 at half-time, but just after half-time, a goal was scored.

However, because of the time it took to score that first goal, we were still profitable, even after the first and second goals. The odds are still below the price we backed at.

Therefore, you can profit from this strategy even if goals are scored. This is because the odds will start heading back in your favour immediately after the goal. It's just a question of when those goals occur.

Watch the match and the stats

You can manage that if you keep an eye on the match and the statistics. You may find it's a match that is very open and with plenty of goal-scoring chances. If so, you can cash out for a profit early, reducing your risk of a goal being scored and having to take a loss.

Also, if you are a Bet Angel user, we have an incredibly useful tool called 'Soccer Mystic'. This will allow you to look ahead and see how you could profit in a match.

Illustration three - Soccer Mystic.png

This will help you identify where the opportunities are in a match and how long you should hold your position before you hit the Cash Out button, and what will happen if a goal is scored. It's an incredibly useful tool.

How to profit summary

In summary, my advice for profiting on under 2.5 goals is:

Research the matches beforehand to identify those less likely to contain many goals.

Back under 2.5 goals before kick-off so that you can cash-out in play.

You will start moving into profit almost instantly. By watching the match, you will quickly feel whether you should take your profit or wait a little longer before cashing out.

If you there's a goal, it doesn't necessarily mean you will lose money as the market starts working back in your favour quickly.

Use Bet Angel to determine what impact a goal will have on your trade and when you should cash out.

If you follow those principles, there is no reason why you shouldn't be able to profit.

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