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Batting power may be more important
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Possible Buttler absence hurts Originals
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Team-by-team guide HERE
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Superchargers slow starters
Batting power more important than ever
The battle between bat and ball in white ball cricket rages on as The Hundred, England's desperate attempt to remain relevant in the franchise league space, begins on Tuesday. It's T20, of course, but not as we know it with the gap between the best and the worst supposedly reduced slightly by the shorter timeframe.
Do the normal rules apply? Yes. But what are they? It's a good question. For yonks it has always appeared to be a wise strategy to place high value on the teams which can be mean and miserly with the ball. The professional analysts have always argued that it is batting power that is crucial.
In recent times it appears that the latter group appear to be correct. There has been a significant shift in rungetting in the last 12 months, most notably in the IPL which was a graveyard for bowlers.
Analysis, then, on how important runscoring is should inform on how we bet The Hundred. By looking at the batting run rate and bowling economy rankings for each team from the previous season in the last eight competitions (T20 World Cup, IPL, PSL, ILT20, SAT20, Big Bash, CPl and The Hundred) it is possible to build a picture of where the power lies.
Eleven of the last 16 finalists have had at least one ranking in the top three on batting run rate or bowling economy from the previous season. Eleven of those teams were ranked in the top three for batting power and six for bowling economy.
Recent form, then, suggests that it is identifying the faster rungetters, in terms of team building and choosing a bet, is key.
There were six teams which were ranked in the top three for both batting and bowling which made it to the final. Only two of those ended up winning the title; India in the T20 World Cup and Sunrisers Eastern Cape for a second-successive SAT20.
The IPL this year was something of anomaly in the study. The final was won by a Kolkata Knight Riders team ranked sixth and eighth on the bat/ball index against a Hyderabad team who were ninth and seventh. It highlights in Sunrisers' case at least the benefit of almost a complete squad revamp.
Rockets well-placed for assault
Last year in The Hundred, Oval Invincibles beat Manchester Originals. Before the tournament started Invincibles were third and fifth while originals were second across both metrics. Originals proved, like Syndey Sixers, that all-round ability was no guarantee of silverware.
The question, then, is where do the teams rank this season for batting run rates? And have they strengthened or weakened their batting options with recruitment?
2024 Batting power rankings
1 Manchester Originals
2 Trent Rockets
3 Oval Invincibles
4 Northern Superchargers
5 London Spirit
6 Welsh Fire
7 Southern Brave
8 Birmingham Phoenix
On those numbers, Betfair Sportsbook are right to make last year's finalists two of the front three in the betting. Invincibles are 7/24.50 jollies with Originals rated alongside Birmingham Phoenix at 5/16.00. Phoenix do seem to be overrated if we're correct about batting power. They had a disappointing season last term, finishing sixth.
It would be hard to argue Invincibles are the wrong price. Less so Originals although for the reason that they are too short. The news that Jos Buttler is set to pull out of the tournament due to injury is a hammer blow. Having lost Laurie Evans to Southern Brave they looked a little light on batters anyway. They have to be a swerve at this stage.
The value, then, could be Trent Rockets at 6/17.00. They don't stand on ceremony with the bat and if they field the XI as discussed on our team-by-team guide, four of their top five have career strike rates of 140 or more. Alex Hales and Adam Lyth form a potentially destructive opening partnership. And if Rockets choose Jordan thompson ahead of overseas all-rounder Imad Wasim, they will also have a finisher who strikes in the mid 150s.
Rashid Khan, who missed the 2023 season, returns and he could be their most important player to boost them from a fifth-placed finish. His spin should ensure that the Rockets batters are not put under too much pressure. As usual we run the gauntlet with availability of key men but there's no sign yet that Rashid will be called away.
Back Trent Rockets to win The Hundred
League winners straight to the final
Ins and outs, of course, impact the rankings for batting power. And if there is a team which can cause a surprise in that respect it is probably Southern Brave. Brave have added Evans and the excellent leus du plooy. Surely they can boost their run rate. A bowling rank of No 1 means that they should at least be competitive. The Sportsbook rate them at 13/27.50.
With the teams finishing in first position going straight to the final, consistency will be rewarded. And that goes for player selection, too. To that end, Northern Superchargers could find this another difficult campaign.
Superchargers finished eighth in the ladder last year and with days to go before their first game they are struggling to field an XI. It makes a farce of the competition somewhat. The late surge by the New York franchise in the MLC robs them of Nic Pooran for a little longer just when it looked like he might be able to carry them through initial skirmishes.
Back Southern Brave to win The Hundred