The Hundred tips Matches 31 and 32: Hit big top-bat prices up to 35/1

• Rockets assured of qualification

• Spin-friendly pitch expected

• Can Smith and Vince flop again?

• Green and Jordan shrewd picks

• Runs shorts in both games

Trent Rockets v Birmingham Phoenix
Wednesday 27 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Trent Rockets v Birmingham Phoenix - The Hundred Tips

Trent Rockets will face Northern Superchargers in The Hundred eliminator on Saturday in a bid to stop Oval Invincibles winning a third-successive title. This contest is unlikely to provide fair preparation for conditions in south London.

The Trent Bridge surface has been slow and stodgy. Joe Root, on in-field commentary against Manchester Originals, gave a damning live pitch report calling it "very slow". Originals could manage only 98 for eight. With an army of spinners on show here it could make for a turgid affair.

The Rockets could use three. Rehan Ahmed and George Linde are certain to play. Surely they add a third in Calvin Harrison or Callum Parkinson to put an end to the imbalance of Sam Hain batting down at No 9?

Birmingham have Liam Livingstone, Jacob bethell and Dan Mousley. Birmingham's issue in this tournament has been the lack of a world-class spinner and they would have actually hoped for more pitches like this so that was not exposed.

Betfair Sportsbook have Rockets' total match runs at 144.5. That should seem high to anyone who saw the Originals match. It would also keep on side a Phoenix batting flop (far too common) if Rockets were to bowl first.

It is possible that the Rockets powers ask for a surface which is less spin friendly than previously as it serves no purpose considering this is a dead rubber. Net run rate calculations are a waste of time with Rockets having the smallest of mathematical possibilities to overhaul Oval in first.

With spin to the fore, Linde may be underrated at 5/16.00 for top bowler. A win on fewer runs conceded is well within his grasp. He also stands out at 25/126.00 to win top bat. The South African is a proper all-rounder.

For Phoenix, Aneurin Donald remains top-bat value. If he plays, we expect him to open so the 12/113.00 is way too big. Finally giving Ben Duckett a day off would make sense. Had they done it at the start of the tournament their season might still be alive.

Southern Brave v Welsh Fire - The Hundred Tips

Southern Brave v Welsh Fire
Thursday 28 August, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Southern Brave's campaign has been a huge disappointment but they should at least be able to identify what has gone wrong; Finn Allen's unavailability, a freak loss of form for James Vince and another example of a franchsie failing to recruit world-class spin.

Fire need to win - and win well - to avoid finishing bottom. Their slump has come despite the recruitment of Steve Smith and it has to be said that the supposed best of all time has looked anything but. Like a cat on a hot tin roof early on in the tournament, Smith has begun to pick up when he has decided to stay to still and watch the ball.

A haul of just 133 runs is not what Fire were expecting. He has only returned once on top bat, too, which is not what punters were expecting either. A dead heat win is just not good enough. Alongside James Vince, who began the tournament with a two-year win rate of 39%, they have been bismarcks. Vince has not won at all.

One has to wonder how long the sequence can continue. It is tempting to reckon that class is permanent and form temporary for these two in the last-chance saloon. Vince is 5/23.50 and Smith is 13/53.60. 

Longer prices could prove more popular, though. On another turgid pitch - first-innings scores so far of 106, 139, 133 - at end of season, lower-order bets would be cosnidered shrewder. Chris Green really should have won for Fire by now and the 22s still catches the eye. For Brave, Chris Jordan has a win in him and the 35s is not an outrageous punt.

Given the pitch and the frail batting line-ups, which are low on confidence, unders Brave total runs at 141.5 at 5/61.84 might not be the worst shout in the world. We would also like to be on Matt Henry for top bowler but given he has missed the last two matches he is surely injured. 

For those looking for a match-odds play, there is a heavy bias for the chaser in Southampton. In an ideal world, taking the bigger price about Fire with the toss in their favour is another solid strategy. They are around 2.186/5.

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