Caribbean Premier League Tips Matches 13 and 14: Back Warriors for title tilt

• Home advantage key for Warriors

• Kings offer stern test with big runs likely

• Tarouba pitch could be slow and low

• Falcons are still underrated

• Waiting on Pooran win

St Lucia Kings v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Wednesday 27 August, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

St Lucia Kings v Guyana Amazon Warriors CPL Tips

This is a repeat of last year's final and it could be the first quality contest of a tournament which has struggled to get going with washouts and big gaps between games for some teams. The Warriors are one of those having played only twice. They have won both to sit behind Falcons in the table, who have played four more.

It is an example  of when the old adage 'the league table never lies' is inaccurate. The truncated nature of the competition does, however, finally give us an opportunity to have an outright bet. And although Sportsbook have not been fooled by the ladder, they have been by the formguide. Guyana should be favourites to win the title instead of Trinbago Knight Riders. Take the 8/52.60.

The obsession with TKR is curious. They have a clutch of terrific players. But only if the year was 2020. The likes of Sunil Narine, Andre Russell and Kieron Pollard may not have the longevity to go to the well again. Just as TKR's crop haven't in the last four years as that's how long it's been since they won. It is true that Nic Pooran could win matches on his own but one man cannot be relied upon.

A major factor in favour of Guyana is that the play-offs and final will be played at their home ground. That alone should have guaranteed favouritism. Guyana's squad, like most switched-on franchise teams, is built to win home matches. Usually that is done to get a team to the knockouts. Guyana's win rate at home in the last two years is 67%.

The Warriors have bristled with power in their first two matches, beating Patriots by five wickets and Falcons by 83 runs. Kings will offer a much sterner test on a Gros Islet surface where we expect batters to dominate. If Guyana were to bat first, they should go on to justify favourite status at 1.608/13. But the Kings' batting is strong enough, and is likely to prove to be their main strength, to flip the odds by the break if they had the chance to post a total.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 5/61.84 that Kings total runs comes in at over 159.5. That could be very generous on this wicket and it is a rare occurence for this market where we would be less worried about the toss outcome. 

Trinbago Knight Riders v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons 
Thursday 26 August, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT

Trinbago Knight Riders v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons 

Trinbago and Falcons meet in Tarouba, the first time the venue has been used in this year's competition. It is a tricky surface to call. Historically it has been tough to bat on but there have been signs it has started to flatten out.

In the recent three-match ODI contest between West Indies and Pakistan batters were able to hit through the line pretty easily.  Hitherto there had been one first-innings score of more than 200 in T20 in 39 and only 13 of 160 or more. Six hitting is also down traditionally with 26% of games producing 15 or more.

It is tempting indeed to start steaming in to unders on match runs totals and sixes lines when they become avilable with Sportsbook. But a watching brief is probably the best advice. With four more after this at Tarouba there should be plenty of chances to make it pay.

Falcons are likely to hope that is a stodgy, slow surface. They have already beaten TKR this season and the 2.809/5 has a generous feel. Unlike TKR, they are not packed with superstars, young or old. But they are a 'sum of their parts' team. The middle-order of Shakib-al-Hasan, Imad Wasim and Fabian Allen is capable of marshalling innings well.

There is still no sign of Justin Greaves, the opener who won four from seven top bats last year. It could be instructive that Falcons have signed USA hitter Andries Gous. Greaves may have been confirmed as injured and out for the whole shebang.

Pooran has a win rate of 34% on top bat and no success yet. He is well overdue. Sportsbook are likely to go 11/43.75. He is going to win at some stage. It's not great, however, that TKR have started to mess around with their batting order, moving him down to No 4. It's a difficult ask for punters to take short prices about a batter who is now getting less opportunity.

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