Oval Invincibles v Southern Brave The Hundred Final Tips: Brave may fall at last hurdle

• Invincibles marginal favourites

• Johnson absence a blow

• Brave batting needs to fire

• Lord's surface suggests tight affair

• Sam Curran could have big game

Oval Invincibles v Southern Brave
Sunday 18 August, 18.00
TV: Live on BBC/Sky Sports

Oval Invincibles v Southern Brave team news

Oval have lost the services of Gus Atkinson after one game. Atkinson has been barred from playing by England. It wouldn't ordinarily be a big deal because he was pricey in defeat by Rockets in the final league game. But Spencer Johnson is also out. Pacer Saqib Mahmood looks likely to play. Mark Watt could get a game. Marchant de Lange is named in the original squad but he's not played once so there's a doubt as to whether he with the franchise.

Possible XI: Jacks, Malan, Cox, S Curran, Billings, Ferreira, T Curran, Lammonby, Zampa, Sowter, Saqib

Brave did superbly to see off Phoenix defending 126 and then holding their nerve in the tiebreaker to make the final. They should be unchanged after Craig Overton replaced Danny Briggs. The batting does still look a little light. Andre Fletcher now appears to be unavailable. Leus du Plooy and Laurie Evans need to step up and support top tourny bat James Vince.

Possible XI: Davies, Vince, Du Plooy, Coles, Evans, Pollard, Jordan, C Overton, Akeal, Archer, Mills

Oval Invincibles v Southern Brave pitch report

Attritional is the word which comes to mind when discussing the impact of the pitch on this game. Run-making has not been easy. The first-innings scores read: 127-94-147-135. The latter two have been defended so a gung-ho batting strategy may not be required. Brave score at a slightly lower rate against the meaner Oval attack so ideally we'd be shorting late 130s on the runs par line. Overcast skies are expected but no rain.

Oval Invincibles v Southern Brave match prediction

Oval are marginal favourites at 1.9620/21 with Brave 2.0621/20. We're a bit surprised the gulf is not bigger but the market often has a bias to a star-studded bowling line-up after the eliminator. And Brave boast that.

Still, a case can be made for Invincibles as we would have expected a price in the 1.804/5 region. They thumped Brave by six wickets in the previous meeting and 'outscore' on batting and bowling run rates. Their 7.1 with the bat plays 6.9 and they are 6.1 with the ball versus 6.4.

Brave were this column's selection at 13/27.50 to lift the title. If you've taken that letting it run is fine. But we have to recognise slightly incorrect match odds when we see them.

Oval Invincibles v Southern Brave player bets

Vince has been boosted to 5/23.50 for top Brave bat. He's basically been doing it all on his own so not much to beat. Chris Jordan's promotion in the Super Over against Phoenix suggests they have huge faith in his hitting ability. The 20/121.00 isn't ideal but he often gets up for a win in a tournament. For Oval, Sam Curran is a big-game performer and prices which are of interest are the 13/27.50 that he tops scores and 9/110.00 for man of the match.

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