Third Ashes Test Player Tips: An awesome foursome for Adelaide

• Labuschagne can hurt England

• Smith in ominous form for England
• Crawley underrated for runs

• All the player win rates

• Read the match preview HERE
• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Australia v England
Tuesday 16 December, 23.300
TV: Live on TNT

Bet 1: Marnus Labuschagne to score first-innings 50 6/42.50

Marnus Labuschagne has looked in good order so far in this Ashes series and it would be a surprise if a confused and weary England did not, at some stage, be on the wrong end of a big score from the home team's No 3.

This bet plays safe and it should be a stress-free winner. but there is nothing wrong with taking the bigger price about Labsuchagne hitting a century at 9/25.50 on a ground that he loves. His record in Adelaide is superb.

Labuschagne has three centuries on this ground in ten Tests and it was no surprise that he made 159 only in October in a Sheffield Shield match for Queensland against South Australia. It was a dominant, brilliant innings which demanded he be brought back into the national team.

He should know that there is hard graft to be done early on but as the stats show from our third Test pitch report, the wicket can get very flat and the ball soft if you can dig in for a potentially tricky spell. Labuschagne has the guts and technique in spades. It looks as though he is leaving the ball well and it took a snorter from Ben Stokes to deny him what seemed a certain ton at The Gabba.

Unfortunately we can't bet him for top Australia first-innings runscorer. The 7/24.50 price doesn't stack up against win rate. We are also wary of selecting one Aussie over another in what could be a runfest. Milestone betting is the way to go. Just bet on your man to get runs and take all others out of the equation. It could be one of those pitches where your guy gets 120-odd and then gets pipped. 

Australia top 1st inns runscorer % win rates last two years
Labuschagne 17.6
Smith 10.5
Head 20
Carey 10
Webster 42 (7 Tests)
Starc 10
Cummins 0

Bet 2: Back Steve Smith over 38.5 1st innings runs

Steve Smith is not the player he once was. Just look at that first-innings win rate for top Australia batter. Those who remember his glory days will recall a two-year period when he won the market as an even-money chance and would go off at 6/42.50. 

But we don't need the Smith of old here. Instead, the one which looked in supreme touch at The Gabba will do. Smith is another batter who is surely going to inflict significant damage on England at some point given how he looks at the crease.

In the second Test he was unfortunate to be caught brilliantly by Will Jacks. It is that sort of intervention that could be required to stop him again. In the second he was seeing it like a football and took delight in taking on Jofra Archer. It could prove to be a significant tussle in terms of putting Archer in his place.

Milestone betting for Smith is also good but we're just trying to pouch a cosy win. He is 11/82.38 for a first-dig 50 and 7/24.50 for a ton.

Bet 3: Zak Crawley top England first-innings runscorer 6/17.00

The planets may, or may not, come into line for this 6/17.00 chance for Adelaide but it would be remiss not to point out that for all his faults, Zak Crawley is underrated on the market in terms of form and win rate.

Crawley looked like a million bucks at The Gabba and given the way he was striking the ball it was a bit of a waste that he didn't go big. If it serves to tuned him up for a big one at Adelaide, all the better. The wicket should suit those booming drives he fancies because the bounce should be relatively placid.

As ever, there's not a huge amount to beat on the market. Despite all the talk about milestone betting for the Aussies, it wouldn't be a surprise if 60-odd won this and Crawley is second only to Joe Root in terms of win rate. We have discounted Jamie Smith whose career is collapsing before our eyes.

England top 1st inns runscorer win rate % last two years
Crawley 22.7
Duckett 8
Pope 16
Root 24
Brook 20
Stokes 0
Smith 23.5

Bet 4: Pat Cummins top Australia first-innings bowler 11/43.75

Pat Cummins is back and we're expecting him to return as if he's never been way. Bet him for most Australia wickets in the first innings.

Cummins is fit again after  back injury and would probably have played in Brisbane had Australia been desperate. But the 1-0 lead meant they didn't have to panic. Cummins' rehab and Australia's series so far have combined beautifully.

Mitch Starc is, of course, the bowler to beat. But Cummins has a 31% win rate compared to Starc's 30 in the last two years on the market so the 11/43.75 at second fav is a wager. 

Throughout the series don't miss our in-play day-by-day guide. For now, though, you can read about player angles and strategies here!

Now read Ed's third Ashes Test preview and tips