England v Australia Third Ashes Test Tips: England weary, sloppy and possibly spent

• Third Test is a must win for England

• Conditions crucial in Leeds

• Weather forecast keeps draw low

England v Australia
Thursday 6 July, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England Third Test team news

England, now 11.010/1 for an Ashes series win, will make enforced and unenforced changes for this must-win clash. For a start Ollie Pope is out of the series having dislocated his shoulder at Lord's. So who bats at No 3?

Harry Brook gets the gig with Joe Root seemingly not budgeable from No 4. Either him or Ben Stokes would have been preferred.

Moeen Ali returns and Mark Wood makes his first appearance of the series. Chris Woakes is a somewhat surprise inclusion. It means that there is no James Anderson.

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Brook, Root, Stokes, Bairstow, Moeen, Woakes, Robinson, Broad, Wood

Australia Third Test team news

Australia, 4.607/2 for a 4-1 series win, are weakened significantly without Nathan Lyon, who appeared to be the one clear point of difference between the teams pre-series. Australia will be grateful they are so far ahead before losing him.

Todd Murphy, an off spinner, has played only four Tests, should come in. He is a steady-eddie type who should be capable of keeping it tight. Expect England to try to hit him out of the attack.

There could be rotation with the pacers. Scott Boland is in line to return with Josh Hazelwood a risk in back-to-back Tests having just come back from injury.
With the bat, Marnus Labuschagne is in need of a score, Travis Head will be targeted with the short stuff from ball one but Steve Smith's first-innings efforts look ominous for the hosts.

Probable XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Carey, Green, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Murphy

Third Test pitch report

There have been eight Tests in eight years at Headingley, five of those have been won by the team fielding first. If there are grey skies on day one the captain winning the toss could bowl first.

None of those eight have been draws. The first-innings scores in those matches read: 329-78-179-174-258-298-350-257. The 179 was by Australia in the Stokes epic in 2019. Note that there have been only two scores of 300 or more and three under 200.

Conditions are king and one has to look up when considering first-innings runs bets for England and Australia respectively.

It is probable that the surface holds up well. There have been, of course, high chases here of 322 (by West Indies) and 359 (by Stokes). Last week in the Championship Yorkshire's 550 in first dig played Gloucestershire's 464 in a draw.

How to bet the Third Test match odds

This Test could be the trickiest to call of all five because of the potential for the teams enduring vastly different conditions. If the sun is out, expect big runs. If it's overcast, bowlers are to the fore.

It could be that one team gets lucky or that conditions are evenly spread. The best advice at this stage is to peruse the match-odds with cold, rational thought.

The conclusion you may come to is this: shouldn't Australia be shorter odds than the Betfair Exchange's 2.3211/8? They are 2-0 up and despite the sharp practice at Lord's when stumping Jonny Bairstow they have been the better team.

England will claim they have been unfortunate. Bizarrely, they have scored more runs off the bat than Australia and lost the same number wickets. The difference has been the extras they have conceded.

That may well back up the view that these teams are evenly matched. Or one could tire of England's lack of professionalism (there's no other word for it) and recognise that with no Pope, Jack Leach, an unfit Ben Stokes and out-of-form James Anderson they are far from at their best.

Put simply there's a hell of a lot against England. It would not be a surprise if Australia's World Test Championship class meant a significant beating was due.

England are 2.767/4 and they have always been an in-play team considering the way they play. The draw is surprisingly short at 4.707/2 to lay and with the forecast pretty good - there's a bit of rain on days three and five - a lay of the stalemate is old faithful given those variables mentioned earlier.

Third Test batters and bowler betting

After Stokes' extraordinary 155 at Lord's there will be plenty of takers of Sportsbook's 13/27.50 that he top scores in first-innings for England. Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow are 10/34.33 and 13/27.50 respectively on home territory. Robinson, seven wickets in the match last time in Leeds, is 11/43.75 for top bowler.

For the Aussies Steve Smith will be popular on a potential road at 11/43.75 for top Aussie bat in first-innings. Labuschagne is 7/24.50 and he did manage two half-centuries in 2019 at this venue. Pat Cummins is 5/23.50 for top bowler and he really could do with reward his backers. It's two blanks so far.

Read England legend Ian Bell on the third Test here

Watch Cricket...Only Bettor Ultimate Betting Guide to the 3rd Ashes Test with Ian Bell

*Don't miss Ed Hawkins' live in-play tweets for the Third Test @BetfairExchange