The Ashes Tips & Predictions

Ashes Series Betting Tips: Cowardly Aussies tarnish another epic

  • Ed Hawkins
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 2:30 min read
Jonny Bairstow
Bairstow was stumped by Alex Carey

Ed Hawkins says that Australia are value for a 4-1 win despite spoiling the spectacle at Lord's on day five..


Remember Newlands

The cricket afficionados, tragics and obsessives will have slept soundly last night, clinging tightly to the rule book. A tiring day for them, after all. 'It's not cheating, it's just out'. 'By the letter of the law...blah, blah, blah'. And variations ad nauseum as they furiously corresponded on Twitter threatening to exceed the new rate limit in record time. The Sky commentary box was full of them, too.

These sorts live for a moment like that. Particularly those who would be seen to be partisan to the team which was 'wronged'. Basically the opposite of Glenn McGrath calling the Mitchell Starc catch decision a 'disgrace'.

They take a sort of perverse pleasure in sticking their Wisden-sepia tinted flag in the moral high ground as they caress the relevant article or sub-section.

What was missing from Jonny Bairstow dismissal debate was context. Not one word seemed to be uttered about this Australia team's past indiscretions when it comes to upholding the values of the sport or showing respect to your opponent. The charge sheet is long and historic. But Cape Town 2018 really wasn't that long ago.

Jonny Bairstow Stumped.jpg

Any time an Australian cricketer claims to know where the line is it sticks in the craw. Since the ball-tampering saga at Newlands, however, it has been particularly stomach churning.

A recap, then. Steve Smith, if you recall, laughed off the first allegations a good chunk of time before resigning and breaking down in tears. Eight of the squad involved in that series are involved in this series.

Cameron Bancroft, the junior member of the team ordered to sandpaper the ball, is not. His international career is probably over. Great blokes these Aussies, really look after their own, don't they?

Bancroft made it crystal clear that the 'bowling group' knew exactly what was going on, which explains why he is persona non grata. The 'bowling group' all played at Lord's.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon. Cummins, now captain, did not withdraw the appeal. Smith, Warner, Hazlewood and Starc were all in the huddle together. Safety in numbers.

Australia Team Lord's.jpg

Post-Newlands, Australian cricket was supposed to have undergone a culture change. There was much hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth. After a period of soul searching and introspection they were going to be try harder to be better. They haven't changed a bit.

The modus operandi is the same as it was then. When under pressure, Australia, self-appointed arbiters of the line, trample all over it. The stumping was an act of cowardice from a team feeling threatened.

A cheap shot which showed no respect for their opponents, the spirit of the game or the contest which was unfolding and had gripped millions.

All this explains the hostile reaction from the Lord's crowd and the Long Room. It wasn't because they didn't know the rules. Or that they didn't think it was out. It was because there was Smith, smug and self-satisfied. There was Warner, the attack dog, snarling and barking and goading. They've learnt nothing and it stinks.

Poetic justice, alas, was not served. And that from someone who had spent two days tweeting every 20 minutes that Australia were value at short odds. Australia a fine team and they do not need to win in that manner. It was a great shame.

Series correct score market

The epic continues, then, from Thursday in Leeds in the third Test with the plot line clearly defining the villains and the heroes. Not that the wrong uns may get their comeuppance.

England are 2-0 down, battered and bruised. Their bowlers are knackered and their hitherto talisman, Jimmy Anderson, looks spent. Three wickets in the series will surely mean he is left out.

Anderson is not the only problem to solve. Ollie Pope's shoulder injury gives them an excuse to take a straggler out of the race. The issue is that replacements are thin on the ground. Few would argue that Dan Lawrence could bat at No 3 or even solidify the batting.

Pre-series, the 3-2 scoreline for both sides was a strong fancy and although scoring rates and bold declarations mean that a draw seems unlikely, it has to be noted that the 4-1 Australia victory remains value at 4.507/2. That has drifted post Lord's.

Ed Hawkins P-L

2023: +18.79
2022:+16.79
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pt

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Ed Hawkins avatar

Ed Hawkins

Ed is an award-winning cricket writer and is Betfair's resident tipster on every single cricket tournament we cover.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.