South Africa v Sri Lanka First test Tips: Lankans lively for a surprise success

South Africa v Sri Lanka
Wednesday 27 November 09.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Sri Lanka First Test team news

South Africa are buoyed by twin wins in West indies and Bangladesh having reverted to picking proper XIs after they sent a reserve team to New Zealand. There are a couple of selection calls to keep an eye on as they could say a lot about the wicket.

If Senuran Muthusamy gets the nod ahead of Gerald Coetzee to Jon Keshav Maharaj in the spin department, it will be something of a departure from pace-friendly wickets. It would also mean South Africa go with three all-rounders with Marco Jansen and Wiann Mulder, too. Thrusting batter Ryan Rickleton is likely to miss out in the middle order.

Possible SA XI: Markram, De Zorzi, Stubbs, Bavuma, Bedingham, Verreynne, Jansen, Mulder, Coetzee/Muthusamy, Maharaj, Rabada

Sri Lanka have had players in the country for more than week and following a creditable 2-1 defeat in England they are unlikely to be perturbed by the challenges South African conditions bring. They will be more than happy, though, if the pitches spin.

Solid batters Dimuth Karunaratne and Angelo Mathews are there for ballast. Kamindu Mendis is the star in the middle order and Kusal Mendis at No 7 is great depth.

With the ball the main conundrum is Lahiru Kumara or Vishwa Fernando. Vishwa's left-arm angle is more appetising for punters one suspects. Vishwa took eight wickets at the ground in 2019.

Possible Sri Lanka XI: Karunaratne, Nisssanka, Chandimal, Mathews, Kamindu, Dhanajaya, Kusal, Rathnayake, Jayasuriya, Asitha, Vishwa

South Africa v Sri Lanka First Test pitch report

South Africa skip Temba Bavuma has said they will not be ordering green tops to expose the gulf between the experience in conditions. That begs the question why? The Durban surface, if the last Test was anything to go by, lets Sri Lanka in. South Africa beat Bangladesh with ease in April 2022 but Maharaj and Simon Harmer took seven and three respectively in the final innings. Sri Lanka also won on this ground in 2019 on their way to a historic series win. Four players remain. In the last ten years (five matches) the batting average per wicket is 24.8. Playing Unders on par lines could well be a smart move.

South Africa v Sri Lanka v First Test match odds

South Africa are 1.584/7, Sri Lanka 5.04/1 and the draw 5.609/2. The first thing to say is that the stalemate price should come down. Heavy rain is forecast for day one and no play may be possible at all.

A simple back-to-lay should be in the offing. It's not going to go odds on but a couple of points at least should drop off. South Africa's price may be most impacted with a drift.

Otherwise, we're not convinced by South Africa at such skinny odds. Sri Lanka have been showing commendable fight and ability over the last few months and their last-Test win in England was deserved. They look a well-balanced side and grit from Karunaratne, Mathews and skip Dhanajaya de Silva will be key for their batting.

They are not the worst bet in the world considering their seamers and spinners could well be in the game. South Africa may take a different view on pitches after this Test.

South Africa v Sri Lanka First Test player bets

There are solid options for top Sri Lanka bat. Less so South Africa. Angelo Mathews at 5/16.00, Dhanajaya at 11/26.50 and Kusal at 6/17.00 are all win-rate value. Mathews is the one who is closest to the win zone, though so we will have a small interest. Kamindu, of course, will prove popular at a boosted 5/16.00. Aiden Markram has been boosted for the hosts but he has been struggling for runs so 9/25.50 isn't a huge interest.

With the ball, Asitha Fernando impressed in England and the 11/43.75 that he takes most wickets in the first innings is worthy of support. Maharaj at 7/24.50 may be underrated but moisture if South Africa bowl first may not be ideal.

Now read Ed's tips as England face New Zealand here!