New Zealand v England First Test Tips: Kiwis have the edge in cracking contest

New Zealand v England
Wednesday 27 November 22:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

New Zealand v England First Test team news

New Zealand have to find room for the fit-again Kane Williamson. Will Young, his replacement for the extraordinary whitewash in India, was named player of the series so he's not going anywhere.

Even though Mitchell Santner is unavailable, Glenn Phillips looks vulnerable here. New Zealand have been clear that they reckon four seamers will be required, so one from Jacob Duffy or Nathan Smith joins Tim Southee, Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke.

Smith' s superior batting probably gets him the nod. Rachin Ravindra can provide spin if required. There is no specialist spinner in the squad which is a clue to the surface.

Probable NZ XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Southee, Smith, Henry, O'Rourke

England have named their XI and, as is their wont, have caused a surprise. Jacob Bethell will have to bat at No 3 on his Test debut. Not Joe Root, who plays his 150th Test and got 262 against Pakistan the last time he played there.

Bethell is in the team because Jordan Cox suffered rotten luck when breaking a finger. He was deputising for the unavailable Jamie Smith. Ollie Pope will, quite rightly, bat down at No 5 as he takes the gloves, but Root really should have taken one for the team here.

Chris Woakes leads an attack which may be considered short on craft in these conditions. Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse still feel more like brawn bowlers than brain. Shoaib Bashir retains his place despite Jack Leach also appearing to have more guile.

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Pope, Stokes, Woakes, Atkinson, Carse, Bashir

New Zealand v England First Test pitch report

It appears that the Hagley Oval wicket has got better to bat on recently. Australia chased 279 in March, recovering from 80-5 to win. New Zealand chased 285 versus Sri Lanka to win in the fourth the year before.

There's an average of 32 runs per wicket in the first two innings in the last five years (seven tests) compared to 26 in third and fourth. But New Zealand's 521 against Bangladesh and Pakistan's 659 may skew those stats. A score of around 300-320 won't be too shabby.

There is always the temptation to short unders in New Zealand. But it may be best to do so in-play once conditions have beeen assessed. The Tests should begin under clear skies, for example. Anything leaden and we would have probably advised going unders on par lines.

England are, for sure, a reliable in-play short when they have a partnership going. Their attacking nature means a collapse or early declaration often wins the market.

New Zealand v England First Test match prediction

New Zealand are 1.981/1 with England 2.285/4 and the draw at 15.50. The latter price is indicative of a weather forecast of no rain.

This is a tight old contest. And it is extremely hard to split these two, despite contrasting styles. New Zealand are efficient and studious, England are often chaotic and noisy about their approach.

Maybe the Kiwis should be clearer favs. After all, they remain in contention for the Test Championship whereas England do not. The hosts may also have the edge with the ball. In Southee and Henry they have two crafty performers.

It has been said before that there are worries about England being a bit expensive in the field and it could well prove that economy makes a difference here. Gus Atkinson and Brydon Carse have combined economy of just shy of four an over. Southee and Henry are miserly by comparison.

Whichever side gets the best of potentially helpful conditions should come out on top. Whether that is batting or bowling first remains to be seen. Ups and down aplenty are expected so booking the Kiwis at 2.305/4 isn't the worst idea.

New Zealand v England First Test in-play strategies

Bethell has been been given a baptism of fire. Against a stellar attack in what could be useful bowling conditions, having to bat No 3 on debut is something England could have tried to spare the man. Bethell is a class act and has good character. He will need all of his ability and guts. But at this stage we have to bet on i be a very hard start.

We should be able to short his runs in-play at 31.5 with a few on the board.

Bethell has played only 20 first-class matches, averages just 25 and hasn't even had time to warm-up having missed the representative XI match. It is frankly ridiculous he is not being eased in and is typical of English hubris.

A runs buy is Tom Blundell. Overs at around 24.5 should be an option down at No 7 with Sportsbook. Blundell averages 68 against England and loves getting stuck in.

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