South Africa v Pakistan Second Test: Tourists worth the risk batting first

South Africa v Pakistan
Friday 3 January, 08:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan Second Test team news

All-rounder Wiaan Mulder looks likely to be available for selection after getting over a fractured finger. How they find room for him, though, is tricky considering Corbin Bosch's super debut with bat and ball.

There could be a spot opened up with Dane Paterson missing out. He was a horses for courses selection on a seamer at Centurion. But South Africa may well want a spin option this time with Keshav Maharaj battling to be fit. Senuran Muthusamy, another all-rounder, is another option.

Possible SA XI: De Zorzi, Markram, Bavuma, Stubbs, Bedingham, Verreyenne, Mulder, Jansen, Muthusamy, Bosch, Rabada

Pakistan almost defended 148 in the fourth at Centurion. It is harsh to criticise but at 99 for eight, they really should have got over the line.

They have been working overtime in the nets to put things right but may also make changes to their XI if they think Newlands may require a specialist spinner. Noman Ali stands by.

The alternative is to stick. Salman Agha and Kamran Ghulam are useful spin options while Saim Ayub was also used fleetingly in the first Test. If they feel Noman must play then all-rounder Aamer Jamal may be considered the most vulnerable.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Masood, Babar, Ghulam, Shakeel, Salman, Rizwan, Jamal, Naseem, Shahazad, Abbas,

South Africa v Pakistan Second Test pitch report

There have been eight results in nine in the last ten years at Newlands. There is no toss bias. The runs per overs per innings drops from 3.5 to 2.9 from first- to fourth-innings. but the more marked drop is average runs per wicket, from 31 to 24. This suggests the toss is crucial.

Last year, India won an extraordinary game with South Africa bowled out for just 55. India's reply was 153. India managed to chase 79 after South Africa made 176 in the third. There was another low-scoring contest in 2022 between the two same sides. No team from Asia has made more than 224 in any innings in four Tests in the study sample.

It is a tried and trusted method but shorting Pakistan's first-innings runs at around the 300 mark on the runs market at 1.834/5 probably makes the most sense.

South Africa v Pakistan Second Test match prediction

South Africa have already booked their World Test Championship final spot. They have been criticised for failing to beat some of the Big Boys according to Michael Vaughan, who has somehow decided that England are one of them. The same England that currently rank sixth.

That could spur them on. But at 1.645/8 it's a little skinny with the toss appearing to be important because of those per innings averages. Pakistan, of course, have nothing to play for in terms of the Test championship but the extra work they have put in this week bodes well that they are in the right collective head space.

As stated, we don't have huge faith that they post a big first-innings score but for the here and now they may be worth a follow at 3.052/1, providing they are using a wearing fourth-innings pitch.

For those looking to bet in-play, taking a risk on Pakistan at a much bigger price having struggled to bust 280 or 290, could be seen as a rewarding masterplan.

South Africa v Pakistan Second Test player bets

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