Sunrisers Hyderabad v Lucknow Super Giants IPL Tips: LSG bowlers to thrive in slow conditions

• Last chance saloon for Sunrisers

• Lucknow still in contention

• Death bowler Naveen a solid bet

Sunrisers Hyderabad v Lucknow Super Giants
Saturday, 11:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

The penultimate weekend of the group stage begins with a critical match at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium. LSG are rated marginally ahead at 1.93, but favouritism may well depend upon the toss.

Miracle recovery still alive for Sunrisers

The hosts are 120.0 to win the title but, after their last match, Sunrisers might have started believing in miracles. They looked down and out when Rajasthan obliterated the all-time record score at Jaipur before going down to a quite remarkable chase. Nonetheless, Sunrisers still need to win their final four matches.

Lucknow did look serious title contenders earlier but their season has taken a dip. They now need to win at least two from three to qualify for the play-offs, in which case a decent run-rate might get them over the line.

De Kock and Mohsin returns boost LSG

The loss of K.L. Rahul seemed a hammer blow but perhaps they can overcome it, because his absence created space for Quinton de Kock. The return of Mohsin Khan (a star last season) from injury is another boost.

Likely pitch conditions are particularly important to consider before betting on all markets here. This is a rare ground where defenders have a statistical advantage, winning 55% of matches over the past five years. Scores also tend to be lower than average, with half of 1st Innings Runs totals coming in below 160.

Conditions ripe for slow bowlers

Moreover, those stats mostly consist of evening matches. Afternoon games invariably involve drier pitches, emphasising the importance of slow bowlers. Lucknow should have the edge on that measure, being able to call upon frontline spinners Ravi Bishnoi, Amit Mishra and Krunal Pandya. Swapnil Singh also made their latest line-up, while Marcus Stoinis is highly adept on slow pitches.

By comparison, Sunrisers pair Mayank Markande and Vivrant Sharma look inferior and they may struggle to accommodate Akeal Hosein. Of their bowlers who have played more than twice, only two, Markande and Marco Jansen, have a strike-rate below 20. LSG have five.

LSG bowlers can restrict Sunrisers

Predicting where the par runs line will open is tricky but I'll be looking to lay Sunrisers to get 160 or more at 1.7 if they bat first. Either pre-innings or via an in-play lay order. They also trail in sixes, hitting 56 compared to 82 for LSG. Take the 10/11 about the visitors hitting more.

One in-play angle to consider is that scoring often gets harder as the innings progresses. In the last match here, Sunrisers failed to chase a gettable 172 by hitting only 66 off the last 49 balls. Big odds are sure to be available about a similar 'late unders' scenario.

Today's #OddsBoost batsmen are Quinton de Kock and Aiden Markram, enhanced to 3/1 and 7/2 respectively to topscore for Lucknow and Hyderabad.

Rather than the batsman markets, I prefer a bet for Top Lucknow Wicket Taker. Bowling at the death could be even more fruitful than usual given the predicted conditions. Naveen ul-Haq is very proficient in that regard and has excelled since coming into the side. He's taken seven wickets at 14.0, with an excellent strike-rate of 13.7.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty