Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals IPL Tips: Punjab to keep play-off dream alive

• Must-win for Punjab

• Will eliminated Delhi lack motivation?

• Hosts way ahead on sixes count

Punjab Kings v Delhi Capitals
Wednesday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

For their final two matches, Punjab Kings switch venue to the HPCA Stadium, Dharamsala. Barring a mathematical miracle, they must win both in order to reach the play-offs.

Dismal Delhi are out

The first is eminently winnable, against a side already eliminated and who have frankly been dismal. The reverse fixture was played last Saturday, with Punjab running out comfortable 31-run winners following a Delhi collapse that can only be described as catastrophic.

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This is one of three matches previewed in this week's Cricket...Only Bettor. As argued there, I'm perfectly happy to endorse Punjab for this match and am extremely surprised to see odds of 1.94 available.

Punjab look overpriced

Punjab are not the perfect outfit by any stretch, but clearly superior as their lingering play-off hopes illustrate. And critically, they have extra motivation than their beaten opponents. Usually such factors move the market so it will be no surprise to see these odds shorten before kick-off.

In the show, I promoted the idea of an outright trade on Punjab at 36.0. Win this and that price will likely halve ahead of their final match. However given we are being effectively offered even money anyway, simply backing them to win the match makes better sense, as they'll be slight outsiders for that finale versus Rajasthan.

I really don't see the case for backing Delhi. They must be downbeat at the end of a grim campaign. Only two batsmen have managed 200 runs, and the principal one (David Warner) has done so at a slower than ideal rate. I wonder whether he or disappointing coach Ricky Ponting will be there next season. Anrich Nortje has gone home.

Back Punjab for most sixes

Another telling stat comparing these two sides is their sixes tally. Punjab lead by a huge 97-50 margin. 14 of Delhi's tally came from their best performer, Axar Patel, who doesn't bat until five. Odds of 7/5 about Punjab hitting most sixes and winning the match simply seem wrong.

So, what to make of this new ground and strategies regarding 1st Innings Runs and Total Sixes? The last IPL match here was ten years ago, since when we have only domestic cricket, associate level T20Is and three T20Is involving India. Only two of those were recent and both were one-sided.

Insufficient ground stats for runs bet

Historically, the average was relatively low here but batting totals have come on a lot since then and in two of those India matches, high scores were achieved. 183 from Sri Lanka was chased easily, with 17 balls to spare.

Moreover, as this is the first match of the season, one would expect a fresh pitch and scope for big runs. One wouldn't expect much assistance for spinners. Again, that combination would advantage Punjab who have stronger batters and weaker spinners.

Regarding innings runs, I will avoid putting a bet up pre-match given there is so little evidence, and use it primarily as an indicator for Friday's match. However, if the 190/200/210 lines are at bigger odds than usual and the ball comes on early, that would be tempting.

Today's #OddsBoost batsmen are Shikhar Dhawan and David Warner, enhanced to 13/5 and 11/4 respectively in the Top Punjab and Delhi Batsman markets.

Ishant rates pick of Delhi bowlers

Far superior value for my money lies in the Top Delhi Wicket Taker market. 9/2 about Ishant Sharma looks standout value and, whilst we can't be sure he'll bowl the full quota, so too 8/1 about Mitchell Marsh.

Why? Check the strike-rates in this tournament. Sharma is at 16.0, way ahead of death bowlers Mukesh Kumar (23.1) and Khaleel Ahmed (22.2), or favourite Kuldeep Yadav (25.8). Marsh, meanwhile, is at 10.0. Back both.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty