Mumbai Indians v Royal Challengers Bangalore: Sixes line looks set too high

Mumbai Indians cricketer Quinton De Kock
Quinton De Kock's top batsman odds are enhanced today

The two best sides in the tournament both lost surprisingly last time but can gain sole top spot here. Paul Krishnamurty says sixes will be hard to come by...

"I'll take on the Total Sixes line at 11.5. 19 in the last match was three higher than any total this season. 12 out of 16 matches have yielded fewer than 12."

Back Under 11.5 Match Sixes 5.5u @ 10/11

Mumbai Indians v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Wednesday, 14:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Winner will head points table

Following this match there will be only two rounds and eight matches of the group stages remaining. The winner will definitely go top and therefore in prime position for a top-two finish and easier play-off path.

Although Delhi are also on 14 points, few would argue with Mumbai and RCB being the two best sides of the tournament so far. Yet both lost at the weekend. Mumbai in quite unbelievable fashion, failing to defend 195 at a big ground, with ten balls to spare.

Ignore shock Mumbai defeat

I'd completely write that defeat to Rajathan off. They knew the chase was their 'last chance saloon' and came out firing on all cylinders. Rather like Sunrisers scoring 219 yesterday and a factor to consider at this stage of the tournament.

Earlier they had put together a fantastic total. 94 off the last seven at Abu Dhabi, where the boundaries are huge, having already lost four wickets. Evidence that, even when losing early wickets, their middle-order is devastating. Hardyk Pandya was the star on this occasion, with an unbeaten 60 off 21.

Bangalore's defeat came against struggling Chennai. Conditions seemed to get much easier at Dubai in the second innings but it wasn't the dew factor as this was a morning game. Hard to explain as their 145 first innings total had looked competitive.

Abu Dhabi scores were previously falling fast

What are we therefore to make of Abu Dhabi and first innings scores of 195 and 194, following 84 and 125? Previously it had looked the hardest of the three grounds to score on. Pitches were getting slow and scoring very hard at the death.

I suspect that is the norm and the high-scoring pitch in question an anomaly. However given the extreme power in both batting line-ups, par will surely be set relatively high. My guess is around 170.

Sixes line well above the ground average

My instinct is therefore to back unders but rather than laying 160 at odds-on, I'll take on the Total Sixes line at 11.5. 19 in the last match was three higher than any total this season. 12 out of 16 matches have yielded fewer than 12. This is more a ground to accumulate a score by running twos.

Chasers have an advantage

Picking a winner doesn't appeal. There may well be a toss advantage for the team batting second. Five of the last seven chasers won and one of the two reversals only came after a Super Over.

For top batsman honours, I'd lean towards the top orders. Both are of course extremely strong. Virat Kohli and Quinton De Kock have #OddsBoosts in this market - enhanced to 13/5 and 11/4 respectively.

So too the favourites for each side's top wicket taker. Yuzvendra Chahal - the leading spinner in the tournament - is enhanced to 2/1 for RCB. Jasprit Bumrah is a 21/10 chance for Mumbai. Neither bet appeals at such low odds in a market that is often tied.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty

Paul's IPL 2020 P/L

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