Ed Hawkins mines for value in game one in the IPL on Friday between Mumbai Indians and Bangalore Royal Challengers from Chennai
"Kishan as a win rate of 19% so Sportsbook’s odds are giving us just shy of four points. Rohit, by the way, wins at a rate of 22% meaning his quote of 12/5 is too skinny"
Mumbai Indians v Bangalore Royal Challengers
Friday 9 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Top Mumbai runscorer
Betfair Sportsbook are taking a risk pricing Ishan Kishan as big as 11/2. The star of India's T20 series success over England, Kishan is maturing into a seismic force. Previously he was best known for childish antics in the behind-the-scenes documentary of Mumbai's 2018 season.
With South African Quinton De Kock in quarantine, Mumbai have an opening slot free alongside Rohit Sharma. Politics may mean Kishan may have to settle for No 3, though, with Rohit keen to protect his India position.
Even so, he remains value. He has a win rate of 19% so Sportsbook's odds are giving us just shy of four points. Rohit, by the way, wins at a rate of 22% meaning his quote of 12/5 is too skinny.
Top Bangalore runscorer
Virat Kohli is our pick for top tournament runscorer. Whether he gets off to a flyer remains to be seen but what we do know is that Sportsbook have - only just - underrated his chances of top scoring.
Kohli wins 34% of the time in the last three years. And with him guaranteed to open, he should have an even bigger edge. When topping the charts in the 2016 tournament, Kohli opened and accrued a win rate of 36%. His runs per innings opening is 38 compared to 35 in the No 3 position, where he has batted 153 times.
Sportsbook made him 2/1, a 0.7% edge, so we are grateful they boosted him to 12/5, handing over extra ticks. He is the only player who is value. AB De Villiers wins 25% so the 3/1 is absolutely bang on.
Top Mumbai bowler
The Chennai wicket is the most spin-friendly in the tournament. So Mumbai's Rahul Chahar should feel confident in his work.
Chahar, who won on his last visit to Chennai, has a terrific return on the top bowler markets with a rate of 32% meaning Sportsbook's 11/2 cannot be ignored. This edge trumps Jasprit Bumrah at 7/4. Bumrah wins 38% of the time. It is vale but we side with Chahar who gives us a greater chunk.
Top Bangalore bowler
Yuz Chahal, another spinner, is the third most reliable bet in the tournament for top bowler, boasting a return rate of 48.2%. He opened the bowling the last time he played at the venue. Sportsbook go 7/4.
Read the Mumbai Indians v Bangalore match preview here
IPL Preview Part II on Cricket...Only Bettor
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end