Delhi Capitals v Gujurat Titans IPL Tips: Gill and Shami rate solid value

• Delhi still without South African bowlers

• Gujurat winning run continues

• Shubman Gill good value for Man of the Match at 9/1

Delhi Capitals v Gujurat Titans
Tuesday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Gujurat Titans begun their title defence with a relatively comfortable victory over Chennai, taking their tally in IPL to an outstanding 13 wins from 17 matches. That record comfortably beats odds of 1.865/6 here to beat Delhi Capitals, who started their campaign with a resounding loss. So, are Hardik Pandya's men a good thing?

60/40 bias to chasers at Delhi

Before considering the teams, we must analyse the ground. The Arun Jaitley Stadium has seen a 60/40 bias towards chasing teams over the past five years, so the toss is critical. That said, Delhi won the toss against Lucknow on Saturday, chased, and came up well short.

The hosts certainly have problems. Losing Rishabh Pant weakens their batting throughout the tournament and, until their South African bowlers return from international duty, their pace attack looks weak. That was the story on Saturday - Lucknow's power-hitters took them apart, scoring well above par on a tricky surface.

Titans light on batting

Titans are not without their own problems. Kane Williamson is out for the season and David Miller is also still not back from international duty. The obvious replacement is the less-proven Matthew Wade. That leaves their batting very reliant on Shubman Gill and Pandya.

One stat which may surprise is that Gujurat have yet to hit 200 in an IPL match. They only hit 79 sixes last term (with Miller by far the most prolific on 23). By comparison, Delhi hit 106 and weren't top of those charts by any means. One would think that matters at this particular ground, which ranks third highest for sixes.

Of course Titans have so far overcome that weakness because their bowling is so strong. Rashid Khan and Mohammed Shami were once again superb in the opener. However their success challenges the idea that all-round balance is the key to success in T20. I remain sceptical that it will be sustained and feel they are overdue a bad run. Hence, I will swerve the 1.865/6 and focus on side markets.

Gill started with superb knock

A better, less risky way to get with Gujurat is to back some of their best players to be man of the match. Rashid won in the first match but honours could very well have gone to Shubman Gill, whose 63 off 36 led the chase. He's 9/1 for this market, compared to 4/1 to be Top Match Batsman.

Equally, Shami is 18/1. Delhi's batsman were poor against Mark Wood's pace on Saturday so his effort with the ball could prove decisive.

One more in this market, for Delhi. Kuldeep Yadav won Man of the Match a remarkable four times in 14 appearances last term. Surely on those numbers, we must take the 16/1.

Very big scores possible at this ground

Also, try a small, contrarian bet on 200 or more 1st Innings Runs. The five-year stats show one in five first innings at this ground produces 200 runs. A fresh pitch at the start of the season is presumably the likeliest time, too.

Yes, as explained above, Gujurat haven't achieved this yet, Delhi struggled with the bat on Saturday and are up against the best bowling unit. The case is therefore far from obvious and hopefully that will mean bigger odds. My guess is around 7.06/1 or perhaps bigger. At some stage, Gujurat will hit 200 and this Capitals line-up does not lack power or depth.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty