India v New Zealand Champions Trophy Final Tips: Kiwis squeeze to deny India title

India v New Zealand Superboost

Virat Kohli and Kane Williamson hit 17 boundaries between them in the semi-finals so expect these two big hitters to hit plenty more in Sunday's final.

You can back Kohli and Williamson to his a combined eight boundaries between them at the super-boosted price of 6/52.20 when the two teams meet to decide the winner of this year's Champions Trophy.

India v New Zealand
Sunday 10 March, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy Final team news

India, as one would expect for a team which has had the benefit of playing all its games at one venue, are settled with each player knowing his role. They are almost certain to be unchanged barring any injuries they are keeping under wraps.

There have been worries about Rohit Sharma's hamstring and various niggles for Mohammad Shami, the latest after being pinged on the shoulder from a throw from the boundary. But it would be a major surprise if both were not patched up to play.

Despite their insistence that it is not an advantage to be playing in Dubai, India have been able to pack their squad with spin bowlers. Varun Chakravarthy has displaced Harshit Rana, the pacer, since the start of the tournament. It means they have an option to bowl 40 overs of tweak if needed.

Probable XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Axar, Rahul, Hardik, Jadeja, Shami, Kuldeep, Chakravarthy

New Zealand have a major worry about the fitness of Matt Henry, who injured his shoulder in the semi-final success over South Africa. Henry is the leading wicket-taker in the tournament and has been in the top echelon of strike-rate bowlers in the last two years.

It would be unfair to say New Zealand's hopes rest on Henry but it is also hard not think a less than 100 per cent fit henry, or being absent altogether, is a significant blow. If Henry is out they could well bring in an extra spin option in the form of Mark Chapman. This would lengthen the batting for an expected attritional affair. Kyle Jamieson and Will O'Rourke would be the two pace options, which should be enough. Chapman is perhaps unfortunate not be in the starting XI. He can give it a good whack and his spin is useful. 

Probable XI: Young, Ravindra, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Santner, Jamieson, Henry/Chapman, O'Rourke

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy Final pitch report

The Dubai wicket is slow, tacky, difficult for batting and perfect for spinners to tie down teams. In four matches no team has scored more than 264 batting first. Three of those games have been won by India as the chaser. But this is where it could pay to go against the tide.

It could well be an advantage to bat first. In that regard the India-New Zealand group clash is instructive. New Zealand had India under the pump, or at least they thought they had, when restricting them to 249. In the end the Kiwis crumbled to 205 all out. Don't rule out a repeat, whoever bats first.

The first-innings runs line are alive to the prospect of a low-scoring game. We would expect New Zealand runs to be available to short late 240s, early 260. India's line will probably be 25-30 runs higher. 

India v New Zealand Champions Trophy Final match prediction

India are as short as 1.444/9 to win back-to-back global titles. Given their resources and a schedule designed to help them to win, there really is no excuse. Well, apart from losing the toss.

If New Zealand were to bat first they have a live chance to upset the apple cart. At the least they can trade as favourites. This is to go against the perceived wisdom but it would be a surprise if this was a straightforward as the odds suggest.

That is because we believe that the Kiwis have the nous and grit to recognise that 250-odd can be a winning score batting first. Then they have the bowling discipline - and variety - to cause India problems. Perhaps their brilliant fielding could make the difference in the end. 

Mitchell Santner, the Kiwi captain, appears to be crucial. He was economical with the ball in the earlier meeting. He also made sure South Africa's star batters were becalmed just when they were beginning to get up in the semi-final. India may attack him. 

The Kiwis, then, represent value at 3.259/4. We don't expect the odds to change on the flip. The caveat, of course, is that Henry has to be in the starting line-up. They would inevitably drift to a bigger price if he was ruled out. Henry took five wickets in the group head-to-head. 

India will look to Virat Kohli and Shreyas Iyer to manage the scoring in the middle overs. If we are wrong about New Zealand's charge, it probably comes unstuck with two batters who are averaging 74 against them in the last two years.

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