India v New Zealand Champions Trophy Final Specials Tips: 275/1 gamble catches the eye

India v New Zealand Superboost

Virat Kohli and Kane Williamson hit 17 boundaries between them in the semi-finals so expect these two big hitters to hit plenty more in Sunday's final.

You can back Kohli and Williamson to his a combined eight boundaries between them at the super-boosted price of 6/52.20 when the two teams meet to decide the winner of this year's Champions Trophy.

India v New Zealand
Sunday 10 March, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top team runscorer: Rohit and Young sensible picks

The Champions Trophy has been a curious and frustrating tournament for win-rate backers on the top innings runscorer markets.

Of the eight teams' top-rated batters (on two-year form) only two won in an innings. England's Ben Duckett and Bangladesh's Najmul Shanto are very much propping up the formbook. Heinrich Kaasen, Alex Carey (although he should have won against India), Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Fakhar Zaman (injury ended his campaign early) drew blanks.

For the showpiece there are two last men standing. India's Rohit Sharma and New Zealand's Will Young entered the competition with win rates at 33% and 30% respectively. To say they are overdue is an understatement. Rohit's mark is down to 29% and Young is at 26%.

On the numbers it would be a surprise if at least one of them didn't win in Dubai. they are very much in the win zone. Rohit has now gone five matches without a win since his 119 against England in early February. Young's sequence was extended to nine matches when falling for 21 against South Africa in the semi-final in Lahore.

Do we back them? The first hurdle to clear is whether the Sportsbook price is out of line with how often they actually win. At 7/24.50 Rohit has implied probability of 22.2%. Tick. Young at 9/25.50 has implied probability of 18.2%. Tick.

There should be no significant concerns about form for these two. Rohit is hitting it reasonably well while Young managed 107 against Pakistan in the opening match. So we have two batters with no semblance of being stuck in a rut at inflated odds against win rates.

The Dubai surface could be a sticking point. It is not batter friendly. But it could also be said that Rohit and Young have the opportunity to score cheap runs in the powerplay when the track has just been rolled and the ball is hard.

It is true that 40 or 50 could win this and bigger prices lower down the order will appeal (Hardik Pandya 16/1 for example and Glenn Phillips at 17/29.50 but there's nowt wrong with showing faith in two reliables restoring the balance at sensible stakes. Both are class performers.

Top India wicket-taker: Jadeja underrated

Ravi Jadeja is 5/16.00 for top India bowler. It is a price we have highlighted consistently as being wrong and despite no win, there is no reason not to go back in on the spinner.

Jadeja would have won in the semi-final but for Mohammad Shami stealing it from his last delivery against Australia. That meant his two-year win rate dipped to 22.58. An edge remains for punters and a sizeable one at that. We have 5.8 points in our favour with win rate minus probaility.

As everyone now knows, the Dubai track suits spin bowlers and Jadeja will get plenty of opportunity to squeeze the Kiwis in the middle order, induce mistakes and get on the board. There is hope, also, that he can keep his economy rate down and claim the success on fewest runs conceded if wickets are tied.

In the meeting at the group stage Jadeja took one for 35 from eight which was far from shabby. But Varun Chakravarthy stole the show with five wickets. We expect jadeja to have more of a say this time.

Top batter and bowlerr acca not the worst option

It is rare that we are tempted by the Sportsbook accumulator specials but it is worth noting that a 275/1276.00 offering is not quite the mug wager that big-priced eyecatchers can often be dismissed as.

Having the smallest stake on Virat Kohli to top score for India, Kane Williamson likewise for the Kiwis and then Varun and Matt Henry taking most wickets respectively for India and New Zealand could be a bit of fun.

There's not often science to such a wager but this time it does have logic. Kohli and Williamson are both ideally suited to this sort of slow, tacky track. Big shots are off the table with crease occupation and strike rotation the order. No-one can doubt their brilliance.

As stated Varun claimed five wickets and the man of the match in the previous meeting. Henry is the top wicket-taker in the tournament and has consistently been the top-rated NZ bowler on the market for yonks. Henry does have a fitness concern over a sore shoulder. If he doesn't play it will be void and money back. 

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