India v Bangladesh Champion Trophy Tips: Crash Bang wallop for outsiders with two to back and one to lay

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor Champions Trophy Ultimate Guide

India v Bangladesh
Thursday 20 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

India v Bangladesh Champions Trophy team news

India are, of course, without Jasprit Bumrah. It is a sesimic blow as he is the best bowler in the world. But in terms of the numbers, as explained here, it doesn't actually leave them too exposed. No team overtakes them on key metrics.

In Bumrah's place comes Harshit Rana. He should form a decent new-ball pairing with Mohammad Shami.

Shami, if he was finding his way back to form and fitness in the England ODI whitewash, could have a big series.

Probable XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Axar, Rahul, Hardik, Jadeja, Harshit, Shami, Chakaravarthy

Bangaldesh have the worst win rate in the competition and are going to find it a struggle. There is a big gulf between them and the rest in Group A. 

Skip Najmul Shanto is key with the bat and it doesn't bode well that he has been out of touch. With no Shakib-al-Hasan, they desperately need him to step up. Otherwise reliable old hands like Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Mushfiqur and Mahmudullah will try to keep them competitive.

Taskin Ahmed and Mustafizur often promise to be a fine new-ball combo. But they never quite pull it off in the big competitions. Spin all-rounder Rish Hossain is one to watch, though. 

Probable XI:  Sarkar, Tanzid, Shanto, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Hridoy, Mushfiqur, Jaker, Mahmudullah, Hossain, Nasum, Taskin, Mustafizur

India v Bangladesh Champions Trophy pitch report

We're not expecting huge runs in Dubai and a short on Bangladesh runs could be the most solid starting point for this game if they were to bat first on the par line.

In the last two years they average 25.8 runs per wicket against Champions Trophy peers. In the last four years against India they have busted 250 twice in five. It may be possible to short their runs in the late 250s but if not the first-innings runs market may offer a lay at around 2.1011/10 for 260 or more.

Dubai isn't particularly fast-scoring. The average run rate is 4.31 and the average runs per wicket is 24.3. 

Much may be made of the potential toss bias and how the chaser dominates in T20 because of dew there. But there's no evidence that this translates to ODI.

Four of the last six (four years) day-nighters have been won by the side batting first and in all games it's a bang on fifty-fifty split.

India v Bangladesh Champions Trophy match prediction

India are 1.121/8 with Bangladesh 9.008/1. There will be an argument that Bangladesh are worth a gamble batting first because of dew, at least for a trade, but we're not convinced. 

Instead we're looking for bets on Indian strength. More than 60.5 runs at 5/61.84 in their first 10 overs is an option with Sportsbook. That has been a winner in eight of their last 11 in all conditions.

India for most fours, sixes, highest opening partnership and the win is 6/42.50. 

India v Bangladesh Champions Trophy player bets

Rohit Sharma is win-rate value at 7/24.50 for top India bat. He cops 33% of the time but he might need an innings or two to get used to conditions.

Shanto wins at 32% and is way too big at 9/25.50. It's a price we hope holds as he is out of form and has a poor record against India, averaging nine.

With the ball, Shami could be a due a win on top bowler and Dubai could give him some swing action. He wins at 37% in 16 matches and has a decent record against Bangladesh. He is 11/43.75. 

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