England

Pakistan v England First Test Player Tips: Abra-cadabra and a magic trick

Babar Azam
Babar is 13/8 for a 50 in first dig

Ed Hawkins picks out bets at 5/61.84, 13/82.63 and 13/53.60 for game one from Multan which starts on Monday...

  • England could face trial by spinner

  • Babar value for 1st inns runs

  • brook deserves faith again

  • First Test preview HERE


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Pakistan v England
Monday 7 October 06:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top Pakistan first-innings bowler

Pakistan leggie Abrar Ahmed is nicknamed Harry Potter because he wears spectacles. Ubiqutious references like magician and conjoror only really make sense in the contest of his ability to bamboozle, however.

Abrar has an incredible win rate of 85.7% on top bowler in first-innings in his seven-Test career. He will return to the mean at some stage but it is reasonable to reckon that he is value for money at 13/53.60 to win the market again.

For a start, 17 of his 39 Test wickets came against England in two Tests in 2022. There would be nothing unusual about an England batting unit struggling against a spinner of skill in Asian conditions.

Their approach to how they play him could help. England will most likely attack, bringing cheaper wickets into the equation.

Our biggest worry may be fitness. Abrar hasn't played the matches he should have because of back injuries and trapped nerves. He came back for the second Test defeat by Bangladesh on a less spin-friendly surface and has got through overs in List A cricket.

Multan may not be a raging turner but it would be surprise if it didn't spin. England have picked two spinners and Pakistan may well need a pitch as a leveller over the course of the series. We will be backing him in both innings for honours.


Top Pakistan first-innings runscorer

Pakistan's top six has superb quality and they are far from the one-man batting group that Babar Azam's position as one of the Big Five would suggest.

He is well overdue a win on top bat for Pakistan and the 7/24.50 with Sportsbook does feel generous on ability. It is also value in terms of three-year win rate. He has seven wins in 19, just shy of 37%.

There is always a but, though. The Multan surface could well be road-like in the first two match innings. And punters could be left frustrated by backing their man for honours, only to find that a daddy hundred is required.

Babar, therefore, is worth playing safe with. At 13/82.63 for a fifty and with nine wins on that market in 15 Tests at home we have a decent bet. We are only betting on him, instead of others.

In our first Test preview we have had a cheeky nibble on Aamer Jamal at 50.049/1 in case we're wrong about the surface. And he's no way near that price in terms of ability.


Top England first-innings bat

Harry Brook was backed all summer for a top-bat win. And he didn't deliver. It was a strategy based on how often he won the market, which provided consistent value.

The question is whether we keep going with Brook. Rated at 4/15.00 with Sportsbook, he is given a 20% chance. We know that in a now even greater study period he wins at 27%. Yet we have the same fears with the England market as Pakistan's.

Given Brook's propensity to look like a million bucks and then get out cheaply, it's another safety-first play. Going overs at 34.5 for first dig runs is an option.


Now read more Cricket tips and previews here.


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