Pakistan v England First Test Tips: Pakistan value to get back on track

• Stokes is out of first Test

• Carse to debut for England

• Runs shorts a clear strategy

• An early 50.049/1 top-bat pick

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Pakistan v England
Monday 7 October 06:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pakistan v England First Test team news

Pakistan are in a mess. Twas ever thus, no? The death of Pakistani cricket is greatly exaggerated on an annual basis so it is hard to start worrying about a 2-0 reverse to Bangladesh and no wins in ten at home. A visit from the English will focus the minds like few others.

They are boosted by the return of all-rounder Aamer Jamal. Jamal looked a serious player in his skirmishes against Australia. And Abrar Ahmed, the magic spinner, has been recalled to trick England again.

Skip Shan Masood is under pressure. He needs a top six, which is packed with talent and is in no way inferior to England in terms of ball striking, to help him out.

Possible Pakistan XI: Shafique, Ayub, Masood, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Jamal, Mir Hamza, Afridi, Nadeem, Abrar

England have named their XI and it does not include Ben Stokes. The upshot is that Ollie Pope will continue in the captaincy and Brydon Carse comes in for a debut.

It's not ideal in terms of balance but Stokes, when he is bowling, is such a rare fulcrum that he almost like a luxury player in the context of what other teams field. England have had plenty of time to get used to being without him.

Instead of getting bogged down on balance, it may be more pertinent to ask questions about Pope's captaincy. Does he have the steel for this job? The end-of-term defeat by Sri Lanka at The Oval was not a good look.

England have given us an early shout on the state of the pitch. By picking two spinners they seem convinced it will spin.

England XI: Duckett, Crawley, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes, Atkinson, Carse, Leach, Bashir

Pakistan v England First Test pitch report

Multan has a reputation as being a good batting wicket. It certainly held up and played well for the duration in 2022 when England posted 282 first up and held on for a win with a spirited Pakistan getting too close to comfort in a chase of 355. They got 328. It could be that we see a second-innings shootout.

For England, consistent selling in the Bazball era has paid dividends. In only eight of the 30 first-innings under that filter England have busted 400. That means there could be value in-play. A declaration or collapse is very much on the cards for the visitors. A par line could be set at around 360.

Pakistan, by, contrast, do go big with more regularity. They have busted 400 six times in their 15 first-innings at home. The match odds dictate their runs will be cheaper.

Pakistan v England First Test match prediction

England are 2.226/5 favourites with 2.6613/8 and the draw 5.709/2. If you have come out in a rash at the thought of backing England in alien Asian conditions as short jollies, don't panic. The remedy is simple: don't do it.

The only possible explanation for reckoning that they are a bet is if you think Pakistan are in such a dire state that they will fold cheaply. Or you are convinced England will bat first and therefore be able to utilise a spinning wicket at the death.

Despite what the formbook says, Pakistan should be more than competitive and they have the tools with bat and ball to test England. Their top six is superb if their heads are right while in Abrar Ahmed they have a bowler who took 17 wickets in two Tests in 2022 against England. This may be a trial by spin. As ever.

We are also worried about England's profligacy with the ball. They were gung-ho and expensive throughout the summer. If they bowl like that in Pakistan they will get beat. Bowling dry and being dull is the route to victory. Can England stomach such an approach?

We will keep the toss on side and back Pakistan batting first. They might take a slight cut to 2.506/4.

Pakistan v England First Test exchange strategy

if we are right about the Multan pitch being flat, a second-innings shootout and spinners being key in the fourth it feels like a strong recipe for an in-play lay of the draw. It would be a surprise if it didn't make favourite status with a 2 in front of it if there are first-innings runs.

The strategy is to plan for around that 2.206/5 mark. Maybe even shorter. England may well try to put time back in the game - as they did in 2022 - to force a result if things are even Steven.

Secondly, be quick and take the money available on the exchange for Aamer Jamal to top score in the first dig for Pakistan at a whopping 50.049/1. he is half that in reality on ability and Sportsbook are much closer with their quote of 35s. His 82 against Australia in Sydney last time out could mean a promotion up the order.

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