New Zealand v England Third Test Player Tips: Bow out with Southee at 100/1

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New Zealand v England
Friday 13 December 22:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Player of the match/top NZ 1st inns bat

It's another Test where the home hero has chosen to take his final bow. Tim Southee, a Test stalwart who may be remembered more for perspiration rather than inspiration despite both captains calling him 'a 'great', calls time on what will be a 107-Test career.

Southee's performance in this series, and indeed, all but one of those he has played in his last 12 months, suggest he has gone on at least a year too long. But there will be those who reckon the 14/115.00 about an emotional match gong is value. It's not.

Southee's ten Tests this year have produced only 15 wickets at an average of 61. And England's batters have tucked into his now military medium pace to the tune of more than five an over.

The 'there-won't-be-a-dry-eye-in-the-house' gamble on superstars taking their leave with the match award pouched is a lovely idea. But there's no evidence that the adjudicators are swayed. Even Sachin Tendulkar, in his farewell game, wasn't given the gong despite a score of 74. And that was in Mumbai. It's a wonder there weren't riots.

Where Southee might be value is for top Kiwi runscorer in the first dig at an inflated 100/1101.00. His price has been one to fluctuate from 25s to the extreme in recent years. and he has been a winner on occasion. Indeed, he notched against England on their last tour and a 33s quote would be more in keeping with his chances. He has one win in his last 18 so a bit more respect is due.

The good news is that Seddon Park has a reputation for helping the bowlers, as discussed in the match preview, in terms of seam and swing. Neil Wagner, down at No 10 and another 100s chance, came within ten runs of winning in the last Test played there. Kyle Jamieson and Alzarri Joseph notched fifties on the ground in 2020, too.

Top England 1st inns bat

Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope are in the win zone in terms of how often they cop in the last two years. Crawley (15%) and Pope (19%) are always underrated on the markets and both have been pushed out in the pricing in this series.

Crawley is now at 15/28.50 for honours with Pope at 7/18.00. Those are sizeable chunks in the punters' favour although Pope may have greater appeal.

Crawley is on a poor run and seems to have an issue against the Kiwis. He is averaging just 10 in 19 innings. It would be a surprise if he was suited to a Seddon Park track which has helped the seamers and swingers. The surface in game two was far more suited to his game so it was an opportunity missed.

Pope is protected from the new ball in the middle order. He has looked much more at home down there than at No 3 and is worth a small interest. Harry Brook has dominated this market but we're not keen on three-in-a-row. Joe Root remains a huge swerve in the first but not the second.

Top NZ 1st inns bowler

It is possible that Matt Henry losing out in the top bowler market in Wellington is the beginning of him returning to the mean. It is now seven wins in 12. That is the sort of return rate which means Sportsbook are never likely to go short enough so there is clear rationale for taking the 5/23.50.

What goes against him is a surprisingly poor record at Seddon Park. He is taking a wicket every 89 balls across seven innings.

But that doesn't account for his coming of age. He played Tests there in 2016, 2017 and 2019 when he wasn't established. He is twice the bowler these days. and is the home team's attack leader. It might be worth having a wager in case he finally shows what he can do.

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