New Zealand v England Second Test Player tips: Crawley could creep back to form

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New Zealand v England
Thursday 5 December 22:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Top England first-innings runscorer

Zak Crawley is on the sort of lean run which, if it continues, will lead to calls for his replacement in the opening slot. It is now six innings since he made 50 and 23 innings since his last century; the epic 189 against Australia at Old Trafford.

One could never argue that a big score looks just round the corner with Crawley in his Test career. He is streaky in terms of going long periods without a score. And there is no evidence he is in sublime touch on this tour, although, again, there rarely is.

But what we do know is that Crawley needs a flat and true surface. Other tons at Antingua, Rawalpindi and Southampton attest to that. Wellington might be one to add to the list given the historic runmaking.

We also know that he is overdue on win rate for a top bat win. Sportsbook rate him at 7/18.00. The edge is not huge but a return of 16% suggests it is worth an interest. An easier 'win' may be backing him for a 50 in the first dig at [5/2]. We then don't have to worry about what others are up to. It could be one of those grounds - as Joe Root found out last time - when a big ton isn't enough.

Root made 153 at Basin reserve in 2023 only to be pipped by Harry Brook's 186. Root is boosted to 5/16.00 for a century in the first-innings and it is much more sensible to take that option instead of the 16/54.20 top-bat price he wins at a mere 10% in the last two years.

Top New Zealand first-innings runscorer

One of the main takewaways from win-rate studies down the years for top-bat markets is the folly of betting players to go back-to-back for wins. It pays homage to the truism that batters, no matter what level, are in the business of failure. More often than not they don't get a score.

There are exceptions, though. And one of them is Kane Williamson. He appears to be one of the few who, once in a grrove, keeps going. Shikhar Dhawan in T20 another example. Williamson is 16/54.20 to follow his win at the Hagyley Oval (now a 33% win rate in two years) with another at a ground where he averages 75.

Williamson is 7/24.50 for a first-innings century, which may be smart given the nature of the track, and 5/42.25 for a fifty in the same. Will Young, player of the series in India, is 13/27.50 and that looks too big on ability. He is not a certain starter but money back if he doesn't play.

First-innings top bowler

Matt Henry took four wickets at Basin Reserve in the first dig when these side mets in 2023. It was an extradornary game with new Zealand winning by one run.

Henry has seven wins in his last 11 so the 5/23.50 about another success on the market is fair value. The only concern is that at some stage he must start to drift back towards the mean.

For England, Chris Woakes has been pushed out to third favourite at 10/34.33. We still think he is England's canniest bowler and will always be in the mix. Woakes has four wins in 11 in the last two years. That's a win rate of 36%. Implied probability at the odds is 23%.

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