New Zealand v England Second Test Tips: England should be clear favs

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New Zealand v England
Thursday 5 December 22:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

New Zealand v England Second Test team news

New Zealand may look to find room for batter Will Young after they came up short in the first Test. They have plenty of options to get a runmaker who was player of the series against India into the XI.

Devon Conway, Glenn Phillips and Tom Latham, the skip, could all take the gloves if they decided to take Tom Blundell out of the firing line following a poor run of form. Mitch Santner is also available so it would be reasonable to expect he replaces Nathan Smith. If not, Smith could come out for Young with Phiullips and Rachin Ravindra spin options.

Probable NZ XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Phillips, Southee, Santner, Henry, O'Rourke

England have named their XI and it is no surprise that they are unchanged after taking a 1-0 lead. That means Jacob Bethell continues at No 3 despite a second-innings fifty which showed how useful he could be in the middle-order. His strong hitting when the pressure was off suggested he would be ideal lower down instead of a more cirumspect job needed at No 3.

Ben Stokes, who had complained of a niggle, appears to be fully fit. Ollie Pope will continue with the gloves after a tidy display at Hagley Oval. Reserve keeper Ollie Robinson was talked about but England rarely change a winning team.

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, Pope, Stokes, Woakes, Atkinson, Carse, Bashir

New Zealand v England Second Test pitch report

In the last ten years there have been 12 Tests at Basin Reserve. Seven of those have been won by the team batting second. There has been only one draw. This is a surface which has the feel of one which can hold up well. The average runs per wicket overall is 34, which rises to 36.7 in the second innings and remains steadfast at 31 in the third. Even a mark of 25 is not too shabby.

England know full well that first-dig runs guarantee nowt. They lost in 2023 at this ground after psoting 435 for eight declared. New Zealand made 580 versus Sri Lanka in March of the same year. This could be one for overs plays on runs, then. England's innings runs line may be available at 370s/380s. Currently the weather forecast is good with the only rain expected on Sunday.

New Zealand v England Second Test match prediction

The match odds market is struggling to split New Zealand and England who are 2.226/5 and 2.186/5 respectively. That is a surprise.

England looked stronger and more tuned in during game one. New Zealand dropped eight catches and will argue that if they had even held a couple of them the result would have been different. But it's not a great sign for a team to be so dysfunctional in the field and confusion about why England are not shorter is justified.

Yes the Kiwis can show guts and they match-up well man for man, but England are, simply, the wrong price. They should be clear favourites.

New Zealand v England Second Test in-play strategies

We will try to be cute for this Test and use our knowledge of the pitch and England's come-from-behind nature to our advantage.

The stats for runs at this venue suggest the side bowling first should not be alarmed if they take some punishment. England, with that toss bias on side, are unlikely to panic with 400 conceded or so. At which point their odds will be drifting. That's okay. England score quicker than the Kiwis - as game one showed - and waiting for around 2.809/5 in-play makes sense.

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