New Zealand v England First Test Player Tips: Kane able for top-bat return win

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New Zealand v England
Wednesday 27 November 22:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Top England first-innings bat

Joe Root will be chomping at the bit for runs against New Zealand in the first Test. No change there.

The mentality of a great is to keep on churning out the runs. But there may be extra motivation for Root to notch a score after Darren Lehmann questioned whether he was one of the best batters around.

Lehmann is trying to make a name for himself in the comms box, having done so as a coach who presided over the ball-tampering affair and as a player who was carpeted for racist abuse.

He has correctly identified the need to be selective with his facts in a tumultuous era for media accuracy.

If you missed it, Lehmann said Root wasn't as good as Kane Williamson or Virat Kohli because he had never scored a ton in Australia and couldn't be classed as great.

Fine. Let's demote Ricky Ponting, then, because he averaged 26 in India. And Don Bradman, too. He never even scored a ton in India (okay, he never played a Test there but we can all do it Darren, eh?).

This is slightly elongated way into describe data as important. And Root will be well-backed for top England first-innings bat. Sportsbook go 7/24.50 and 5/16.00 for a first-innings century. Root is terrible value for the first-innings honours.

This does not mean he is not a great player. Root's win rate in the last two years is down at 11%. However, he is as close as you can get to blockbuster value in the second-innings when runmaking is harder. Root has a win rate of 42%. Hold your fire.

The man we will back in the first is Ollie Pope. Pope is a man under pressure but he has moved down to No 5, which is a blessing for him and us.

The opportunity for easier runs away from the new ball make him attractive at 7/18.00 on the exchange. Pope has a win rate of 20%. This is a figure which suggests he is a much better player than his detractors.

Top New Zealand first-innings bat

Kane Williamson's return from injury is a boost for the hosts. So how often does he win in the top-bat market? Williamson has a record of 28.5% in the last two years (14 Tests).

With Exchange prices rating him at 4.904/1 there's a decent chunk in our favour. The implied probability of that is close to 20%. It is one of the biggest prices Williamson has gone off at.

Injuries have taken their toll on appearances and in his absence New Zealand have learned to live without their best batter. Notably Will Young has come to the fore and Rachin Ravindra. The heat is more competitive.

But Williamson has tuned up nicely for this. He got a half-century domestically and he has a decent record on this ground with two tons and four 50s in 18 innings.

We will have a saver on Glenn Phillips at 9/110.00 with Sportsbook. Phillips isn't expected to play and money back if he doesn't but he has two wins in 11.

Top first-innings bowlers

two bets here for each team. And they're quite similar bowlers in that they like to get shape on the ball. Chris Woakes for England and Matt Henry for New Zealand.

Woakes is attack leader for England and his craft might make all the difference on a potentially helpful service. Gus Atkinson is a rival but we feel that Woakes is a smarter bowler (at the moment) and we would have the favourites the other way round. Woakes is 10/34.33

Henry has six wins in ten and has more zip. Unsurprisingly he has the best strike rate of any Kiwi in the last 12 months with a wicket every 34 balls. On those numbers he deserves to be clear fav instead of sharing billing at 11/43.75.

Now read my First Test match odds preview here!