England v West Indies Second Test Tips: Windies must bowl first to stand a chance

• West Indies have to get a foothold with ball

• Pitch report suggests seam and swing

• Windies lack experience

• Don't miss the Exchange strategy

England v West Indies
Thursday 18 July, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v West Indies second Test team news

England have pulled a surprise with their selection for the first Test of the post-Anderson era. They have picked 34-year-old Mark Wood instead of Dillon Pennington. It's evolution rather than revolution.

At least they cannot be accused of obsession about a distant Ashes series. Wood is a selection for the here and now and will bring experience alongside Gus Atkinson and Shoaib Bashir. Atkinson, 12 wickets on debut, is far from the finished article and England recognise that.

Named XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Woakes, Wood, Atkinson, Bashir

West Indies may resist the temptation for wholesale changes. Quite right. Their players desperately need to adjust to English conditions. A symptom of a heavy defeat Lord's in the first Test was a solitary warm-up in Beckenham. They should improve for the run.

There were glimmers of hope. Mikyle Louis, Alick Athanaze and Kavem Hodge at least got starts with the bat. There will be more alarm at the pricey nature of Alzarri Joseph's bowling display. Joseph has to do better.

Jayden Seales looks like attack leader and given his stint with Sussex this season it was perhaps no surprise that he hit his line and length.

Probable XI: Brathwaite, M Louis, McKenzie, Athanaze, Hodge, Holder, Da Silva, Alzarri, Motie, Joseph, Seales

England v West Indies second Test pitch report

There have been only two Tests in the last five years at Trent Bridge. England were bowled out for 183 in first-innings against India in 2021 but a washout on day five saved them from a probable defeat. A year later they chased 299 in 50 overs to beat New Zealand in the fourth as Bazball came of age. Both sides busted 500 in the first dig. In 13 Championship 'all-out' scores this term, seven have been under 300.

If there is gloom and cloud, it could swing. If the sun is out the pitch can be flat. The forecast for the morning of day one, at the moment, suggests a tricky batting time.

West Indies must be praying they win the flip. The success of seamers and swingers - Stuart Broad 21 wickets in his last five there and Anderson 20 in four- more than hint at the type of bowler rewarded.

A first punting port of call may well be to short West indies runs batting first. Their runs line at under 193.5 looks about right at present. Alternatively wait for the semblance of a partnership (20 or 30) up front and look to short around 230 at 2.206/5 on the innings market.

England v West Indies second Test match prediction

England are 1.141/7 with West Indies continuing to drift. They are now 16.50. The draw is 16.015/1. There would need to be at least a whole day washed out to rain for the latter and at the moment the forecast suggests that's bigger odds.

So how to play? Obviously England are priced prohibitively. We are left with trying to build a rationale case to back the Windies. It is a tough task because they lack experienced Test players. With that in mind the performances of skip Kraigg Brathwaite and Joseph were dreadfully poor at HQ.

It is probable that West Indies get better. But overturning a defeat by an innings is some leap. Their only route to victory seems to be bowling first in swing-heavy conditions and then making use of them to roll England for sub 200. But that is beginning to sound like the blueprint for a trade.

England v West Indies second Test Exchange strategy

That is fraught with difficulty, too. As we saw in game one, West Indies were just never in the game. From ball one their price just got bigger and bigger, failing to give traders the chance to manage a position from a high starting point.

So a return to such a strategy has to be caveated, as discussed, with the toss in their favour. They cannot be relied upon to score the runs required and no matter how many they may not take the chunks out of their price required. So this must be a bowl first, first-innings only play.

If they can pinch quick wickets with the ball hooping, double your stake on the lay button at around half their starting odds.

Now read the Second Test Player Tips HERE!

Cricket... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.