England v West Indies Second Test Player Tips: Brook trumps Root for runs

• Stick with Brook at 9/2

• Woakes could be perfect for wickets

• Late order run charge for WI too obvious

• Athanaze too big at 6/1 on ability

England v West Indies
Thursday 18 July, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top England first-innings runscorer

With fears of another mismatch at Trent Bridge on Thursday, the side markets take on increasing importance for those punters trying to find a betting interest. Fortunately there is clear value.

These days the top England bat market isn't exactly awash with big value. But we only need one which gives us a sizeable edge. In fact, we much prefer one. Harry Brook gives up the biggest by some distance.

Betfair Sportsbook make Brook 9/25.50 to top score in the first innings. That's a drift from 4/15.00 at Lord's where, arguably, he had the win in his pocket as looked to be chasing down Zak Crawley's 76 with ease. A fifty off 64 balls suggests he can handle the West Indies attack.

That he didn't get over the line shouldn't put us off. We Know that Brook wins 38% of the time on this market in his short Test career. Sportsbook's odds suggest he has a 18.2% chance.

There is little to beat in terms of other win rates. The favourite for the market, Joe Root, has won only 10% of the time in the last two years. Despite a strong record at Trent Bridge we just can't justify a bet at 7/24.50.

Ollie Pope, who wins 17.6% of the time, is another option at 11/26.50, likewise Crawley (20%) at 5/16.00. Pope certainly has the nous and ability go big. As for Crawley we don't tend to follow players to go back-to-back because it is so rare. Given that the gap between win rate and implied probability with Brook is so huge it makes sense to stick with the Yorkshireman.

Brook is also 9/25.50 to score a ton in first-innings and 13/82.63 for a 50. The safety-first bet, of course, is to go with the former.

Top England 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Brook 5/13
Pope 3/17
Duckett 3/17
Crawley 4/20
Root 2/20
Stokes 2/20

Top England first-innings bowler

Nuance and guile often pays dividends at Trent Bridge. That's why Stuart Broad took 21 wickets in his last five Tests at the venue and James Anderson 20 in his last four.

With Chris Woakes now attack leader, senior bowler and the closest in style to those two it is perhaps surprising that he is not considered the standlone favourite for top England bowler in the first-innings. Sportsbook rate him at 13/53.60, the same price as Matt Potts and Gus Atkinson.

Atkinson, after 12 wickets on debut, is all the rage, of course. But we'd be surprised if he turned out to be as smart a bowler as Woakes by the end of his career. The clue might be Atkinson's propensity to go for a few. That's because he is likely to be used as a shock bowler whose pace unsettles batters.

Trent Bridge isn't really that type of value. It's about shape on the ball and a little bit of nip from the seam. That's Woakes' game in a nutshell.

Top England 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Woakes 2/4
Bashir 2/4
Stokes 1/20
Root 1/20

Top West Indies first-innings runscorer

It doesn't tak a genius to work out that West Indies could be blown away again with the bat. Particularly if they have to bat first on a muggy Nottingham morning.

Likewise, it's relative child's play to reckon that 30-40 could win the top-bat market, opening up the possibility of a lower-order thrash and bash taking the honours.

We lined up three possibles to take advantage. Josh Da Silva, Alzarri Joseph and Gudakesh Motie. Unfortunately we're just not getting the right prices. Da Silva has been cut from 11s to 9/110.00, even ruling out his win rate. Joseph is no bigger than 17/118.00 and Motie a disappointing 25/126.00.

The alternative is to back ability. Alick Athanaze is attempting to bridge the gap between style over substance in his Test career. For spells at HQ he looked a million bucks. Check out his straight drives. The 6/17.00 that he can be the best instead of looking the best is an interest.

Top West Indies 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Brathwaite 2/11
J Holder 1/9
Da Silva 1/11
McKenzie 1/4

Top West Indies 1st innings wicket-taker last 2 years wins/matches

A Joseph 3/11
S Joseph 1/3
Motie 1/5
Holder 0/9

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