England v West Indies First Test Tips: Windies could shock rusty hosts

• England have poor record in first Tests of home series

• Lord's conditions may help WI bowler

• James Anderson plays final match

• Batting first tricky for visitors

• Read our Netherlands v England semi-final cheat sheet here!

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England v West Indies
Wednesday 10 July, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v West Indies First Test team news

This is a new-look England with Jamie Smith, the wicketkeeper, and Gus Atkinson, the pacer, to debut. Jonny Bairstow has been axed, surely ending his international career. Jack Leach also has been ditched with Shoaib Bashir now considered the main spinner.

James Anderson, of course, plays his final Test so the evolution is a little stop-start in the context of the series. Chris Woakes will be considered the new attack leader. Stuart Broad has retired and the day that England would be without their two highest wicket-takers is almost upon them.

No doubt England will be aggressive with the bat. But the pressure to maintain Bazball may, eventually, become a milestone. We shall see. Ben Stokes is likely to set the tone to the new blood with hyper-aggressive batting.

Named XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Woakes, Atkinson, Bashir, Anderson

West Indies will risk pacer Shamar Joseph despite not playing in their warm-up in Beckhenham. Joseph's flight was delayed which meant he couldn't get any overs udner his belt.

With no Kemar Roach the Windies look light on bowling. Jason Holder and Alzarri Joseph must step up as senior men. There are concerns, too, about an inexperienced batting line-up.

Opener Mikyle Louis will debut, Alick Athanaze has played four Tests, Kavem Hodge two and Kirk McKenzie three. Kraigg Brathwaite is resolute up front and will be required to knuckle down. Hodge at least managed a ton in the warm-up.

It is hard not to get away from the feeling that a Roston Chase-style calm head in the middle order is required. Josh Da Silva is decent but he may be batting a spot too high.

Possible XI: Brathwaite, Louis, McKenzie, Athanaze, Hodge, Da Silva, Holder, Alzarri, Shamar, Seales, Motie

England v West Indies first Test pitch report

The last eight first-innings at HQ (five years) read: 416-172-165-132-364-378-258-85. There is the potential, then, for the team batting first to struggle. The first morning is likely to be difficult to bat on. If the batting team can escape the first two hours without too much damage they are well set to go big.

The surface often has a bit of grass left on assisiting the bowlers. When that dries out it gets better and better to bat on. Early weather forecasts are important, then.

The chance of showers and cloud cover on the first morning may tempt the toss winner to bowl first given how the pitch holds up. One fears for West Indies batting first a bit. On the last 15 times they have batted first they have failed to breach 250 seven times. Their total of 123 at Lord's back in 2017 started that sequence. It's a reminder that conditions are alien for them. A plan to short 200-220 on the innings runs makes sense.

In county cricket this season there have been three scores of 600-plus and three of 400-plus in five games. We may play England overs if West Indies manage quick wickets.

England v West Indies first Test prediction

England are 1.192/11, West Indies 14.50 and the draw is 10.09/1. Given the prohibitive nature of England's price and the good weather forecast for five days, we have one price to discuss. And that is the Windies'.

There is rationale to having an interest at the odds. But with a caveat. The tourists probably need to bowl first in potentially helpful conditions. This could expose the ubiquitous early-season rustiness from their hosts which has seen them in trouble at the venue previously. They were rolled for 85 against Ireland in 2019, 258 versus Australia the same year and 165 versus South Africa in 2022.

Another boost to the bet is England's record in the first Test of a home series of more than one Test. In the last ten they have won three and lost five including one against West Indies. The recent head-to-head between the two is close, too with two wins apiece.

England v West Indies first Test Exchange strategy

If betting the West Indies and letting it run is not for you then a trade may make more sense. Doubling your original stake on the lay button when their price comes down is the strategy. Look for around 5.004/1. The caveat, remains, however, that they need to bowl first.

For options later on in the match, remember that this is a wicket which tends to remain firm. Big chases are very much on here. The scenario may not occur but England needing 350 or more could get us a big interest.

Now read England v West Indies first Test player predictions HERE