England v West Indies First Test Player Tips: Brook value for big runs at Lord's

• Brook has win-rate record

• Da Silva underrated at 11s

• Anderson specials for final match

• Alzarri strong chance for wickets

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England v West Indies
Wednesday 10 July, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top England first-innings runscorer

With the retirement of Jimmy Anderson imminent, there is very much a sense of England entering a new era. Former players considered junior now step up. One of those must be Harry Brook.

Brook has the potential to have the sort of summer which can establish himself as one of the world's best. With Joe Root's numbers on the wane, Kane Williamson not the player he was, Virat Kohli likewise and Steve Smith on the decline, there is even a chance for him to lead the charge for the new Big Five.

The Yorkshireman has five wins in his 12 Tests for top England bat in the first-innings. That's a two-year study filter. Given the data below he has very little to beat and Sportsbook's odds of 4/15.00 appear to be generous. That's almost 20% points in our favour on win rate.

A West Indies attack minus Kemar Roach is unlikely to worry him and the derivative markets could see serious business. Brook is 6/42.50 for a 50 in first dig and 11/26.50 for a ton. It is possible that three figures won't be enough to top score so it is a price which must be given serious consideration. Four of his seven half-centuries have come in first innings and three of his four tons likewise.

Top England 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Brook 5/12
Pope 3/16
Duckett 3/16
Crawley 3/19
Root 2/19
Stokes 2/19

James Anderson Test specials

There won't be a dry eye in the house of Lord's when Anderson leaves the field for the final time as an England player. For those of harsh and robotic sensibilities, it might be a tad nauseating. Still, it's not a bad idea to consider a profit potential.

Anderson is 5/16.00 favourite for man of the match. He has picked up the gong eight times in 187 Tests. So there would need to be a big chunk of sentimentality involved. We don't rule it out, though, because of the teary-eyed ways these are decided.

Anderson may not need to produce anything close to a match-winning performance. Sportsbook go 4/15.00 that he takes three wickets in the first- and three in the second-innings. That would be more than enough barring something majestic from another player.

More prosaic is the 9/43.25 that he is England's top wicket-taker in the first. As you can see from the win-rate numbers below this isn't remotely close to value. His heir apparent, Chris Woakes, is 5/23.50 and although he has no study sample behind him he is the fairer favourite.

Top England 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Woakes 2/3
Bashir 2/3
Anderson 2/15
Stokes 1/19
Root 1/19

Top West Indies first-innings runscorer/wicket-taker

This is an inexperienced West Indies line-up so with a maximum of ten Tests played in the last two years (we're loathe to go back further) there shouldn't be a mad rush to back some of these boys on win-rate record.

Kraigg Brathwaite is universally popular for top bat but we can't get on board with the 7/24.50. Kavem Hodge, a centurion in a warm-up, catches the eye at 11/26.50. On ability, we expect Alick Athanaze to give it a go at establishing himself as Test class. He is 4/15.00.

The most underrated is Josh Da Silva at 11/112.00. Da Silva has a decent record in the market and his Test century came against England.

Sportsbook can't split Jason Holder, Shamar Joseph and Jayden Seales for top WI bolwer. But we can. Alzarri Joseph is decent and the 7/24.50 is a little unfair. He's as potent, if not more so, than those mentioned.

Top West Indies 1st innings runscorer last 2 years wins/matches

Brathwaite 2/10
J Holder 1/8
Da Silva 1/10
McKenzie 1/3

Top West Indies 1st innings wicket-taker last 2 years wins/matches

A Joseph 3/10
S Joseph 1/2
Motie 1/4
Holder 0/8

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