England v South Africa 2nd ODI Tips: More misery looms for ill-prepared hosts

• England still short-priced favourites despite humbling defeat in opener

• Hosts looked confused and tired

• But Root may be underrated for runs

• Batting first looks key at HQ

• SA could rotate pacers

England v South Africa
Thursday 4 September, 13.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v South Africa Second ODI team news

England were thrashed in game one and they looked every inch a team made up of players who have played too much cricket, too little 50-overs cricket and, finally, boast limited evidence they should be at the elite level.

Harry Brook, Ben Duckett and Joe Root are likely exhausted from playing non-stop since the the first Test versus india which started June 20. Then there's Jacob Bethell and Sonny Baker, who form the latter group.

Where is the study sample which shows these two are elite players? Bethell has never scored a first-class century and Baker was seemingly picked for bowling ten good ones against David Warner and Kane Williamson in The Hundred. England's selection process is not robust and, like Shaoib Bashir's pick from obscurity, is based on whims and hunches.

If Duckett is rested, Tom Banton could come in to open. Rehan Ahmed really should be playing instead of Bethell given his dominant performnces in the Hundred. It's a scandal that he isn't but England will never drop the golden boy who, ludiscrously, captains England against Ireland next. Will Jacks might miss out for Rehan. Baker should be replaced by Saqib Mahmood. 

Possible England XI:  Duckett/Banton, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Bethell, Jacks/Rehan, Carse, Archer, Rashid, Mahmood

South Africa should have no real reason to change their XI barring any unreported injuries. It is possible they have a rotation policy in place with their pace bowlers so the bad news for England is that Kagiso Rabada or Kwena Maphaka could come in for one of Nandre Burger and Lungi Ngidi. 

There is a weakness in their balance that England need to be able to hang around long enough to exploit. Aiden Markram can be canny with the ball but as a sixth-bowling option he should be targeted. All-rounder Senuran Muthusamy in place of Tony de Zorzi is change which could happen in time given how England struggled against spin.

Probable South Africa XI:  Markram, Rickleton, Bavuma, de Zorzi, Stubbs, Brevis, Mulder, C Bosch, Maharaj, Rabada/Maphaka/Ngidi, Burger

England v South Africa Second ODI pitch report

There have been four ODI in the last five years at Lord's with England batting first and winning all of them. Scores of 312, 311, 246 and 247 were defended. A ten-game study filter gives an average first-innings score of 282 and an average second-innings score of just 184. There is a 60% bias for the team batting first. England's total runs for the match at unders 290.5 at 10/111.91 appears to be a good starting point, then, given their struggles. Captains may be swayed by weather and overheads. Rain is expected in the morning but a mix of cloud and sun is forecast for the start time. 

England v South Africa Second ODI match prediction

In my preview of game one on these pages it was stated that England were overrated as an ODI team at odds-on. They have now won only six of their last 18. Given that they are no better than 1.758/11 it should be no surprise that South Africa at 2.305/4 are rated as the bet.

It is possible the Saffers are confused by the recent bias, and the weather forecast was behind their success in Leeds. Temba Bavuma, if he gets the chance, may well stick in England again.

That could be England's best chance of a series-levelling win. One would always prefer a captain to make a toss call based on a long study period. So we caveat our wager with South Africa batting first. Sportsbook offer 9/43.25 that South Africa win a game in which both teams have busted 250. 

But there is nothing wrong with backing South Africa straight up. They are the better team. Even if they do bowl first again they will take comfort from that sequence of results for England, nine of the losses have come when trying to defend. 

England v South Africa Second ODI player bets

Despite the workload, Root actually looked in pretty decent touch at Headingley. And with a ten-game study period behind him in the last 12 months a case could be made for a top England bat wager at because of a four wins. There is certainly nothing to beat in terms of win rate. Buttler has one win in ten, Duckett three in 15. Root is 16/54.20 while the 16s that he tops and Markram does likewise for South Africa (not bad consideirng his clean striking in game one) has appeal. 

Adil Rashid is 3/14.00 for top England bowler. He has a win rate of 28% in his last 18 and picked up a simple win at Leeds with three late wickets. For South Africa Kwena Maphaka is one to watch at 7/24.50. It won't be long in his career before he is going off significantly shorter and he could take the hosts by surprise with his pace.

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