England v South Africa First ODI Tips: Overrated hosts face stiff test

• England short-priced favourites

• Weather forecast poor for Leeds

• Root boosted to 5/16.00 for ton

• Stats say Saffers underrated bowing first

• Hosts face pace test

England v South Africa
Tuesday 2 September, 13.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v South Africa First ODI team news

England's batters switch codes again. Having finally shown some ability to get a grips with The Hundred following an exhausting Test series against India, Ben Duckett, Joe Root and Harry Brook must adapt again. It was telling, perhaps, that all three had meaningful impacts only at the end of the tournament.

Jamie Smith was okay, though, and this top order looks strong with Joss Buttler probably batting a spot too low. Golden boy Jacob Bethell, who can do no wrong despite doing very little right, looks certain to play considering he has been made captain for the Ireland series at the end of the summer. That's a shame because Rehan Ahmed, the true golden boy, might not get a spot and England could be light in sixth bowling options. Maybe only one of Saqib Mahmood and Jofra Archer plays.

Possible England XI:  Duckett, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Bethell, Jacks/Rehan, J Overton, Carse, Rashid, Mahmood/Archer

South Africa are moving on from the old reliables likes Quinton de Kock and Heinrich Klaasen. They come into the series off the back of an impressive 2-1 win over Australia Down Under. They managed it without Kagiso Rabda, who should come straight back into the XI. Matt Breetzke impressed with run getting and Dewald Brevis with strike rate. 

Senuruan Muthusamy, a spin all-rounder, and Corbin Bosch may be in a battle for the final spot. Lungi Ngidi and left-arm tyro Kwena Maphaka could also play as South Africa look to hit England with pace.

Possible South Africa XI:  Markram, Rickleton, Bavuma, Breetzke, Stubbs, Brevis, Mulder, Muthusamy, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi, Maphaka

England v South Africa First ODI pitch report

The Leeds surface is usually reliable for big runs, providing the skies are clear. In The Hundred, Northern Superchargers made it all the way to the semi-finals off the back of batting first and big there. But there is precious little evidence of a road in ODI. There have been only two in the last five years and one of those, between these teams, was washed out. At least South Africa, at 159 for two in the 28th, were on course for a big one. Australia's 270 all out two years later was a surprise.

England remain dangerous with the bat in this format. Over the last 12 months only West Indies have beaten their strike rate of 98.8. South Africa are playing catch-up at 90. As is so often the case, the teams that go hard with the bat do likewise with the ball and England (with West Indies next) are bottom of the economy charts. South Africa are third bottom.

It would be fair to reckon, then, that the home team are more reliable to bust a total runs line from Sportsbook of 285 at 10/111.91. That has won nine in the last 17. The sticking point is the weather. Unsurprisingly in September the Yorkshire weather doesn't play ball and overcast skies and rain are expected.

England v South Africa First ODI match prediction

England are 1.645/8 to take a 1-0 lead. That is a very short price about a team which has been unreliable in the last 12 months. Sure, they beat West Indies 3-0 in their last assignment but it was what came before that may be more relevant.

A sequence of seven-straight defeats, including all three at the Champions Trophy, should cause alarm when faced with such skinny odds. A seven-wicket beating by South Africa is included. Overall they have won only six of their last 17. 

They are better at home but one gets the feeling at these odds one would like the comfort rug of batting first. But there's a caveat to that, too, eight of those defeats have come when doing so.

South Africa have a recent record of doing better fielding first (four wins from six). A picture is emerging, then, of an overrated home team and the potential for a key toss. A gamble on the visitors bowling first - which is the smart choice given the forecast - is not the worst idea. 

England v South Africa First ODI match player bets

Sportsbook make Jamie Smith a 5/16.00 chance for most England runs. That looks toppy considering we expect him to open the batting. Root has been boosted to 5/16.00 for a century. He has two in his last nine. Certainly milestone betting has been the way to at Leeds, at least when batting conditions have been perfect. 

With the ball, Rabada, Ngidi and Maphaka are separated by only 1.4 on bowling strike rate numbers. Considering Maphaka is by far the biggest of the three for top South Africa bowler at 7/24.50 he can be considered value.  There is a hint of an issue against left-arm pace for England over the last 12 months. 

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