England v India Third Test Player Tips: Big-priced top-bat winner incoming?

• Lord's should suit Woakes

• Bumrah to get pick of best end

• Top order could struggle first-innings

• Read the third Test match preview HERE

• Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer

England v India
Thursday 9 July, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Top England first-innings bowler

England might just be tying themselves in knots ahead of game three at Lord's. If they truly believe that they lost in Birmingham because the pitch was of 'subcontinental style', then surely they have no need to panic in terms of their bowling unit?

They have apparently ordered a green top for HQ after Ben Stokes lamented a surface that played into India's hands. But if they truly believe that Birmingham masqueraded as  Bengaluru, then they should show faith in the very English--style seam attack to get the job done on exactly the surface they were picked for.

Of course the reality is that Edgbaston was nothing like an Indian pitch. It didn't deteriorate, it didn't spin, it didn't slow down or keep low. Only two wickets fell to India spinners. 

The hosts lost because they were outgunned by India's English-style bowlers. Mohammed Siraj and Akash Deep got seam and swing movement that England could only think wistfully of. Stokes is not telling the truth. 

It may also be a smokescreen to justify ripping out their bowling group and starting again. Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson are primed for a return on a a wicket which looks pretty juicy. Archer has three wins in his 13 Tests on the first-innings bowler market (although his last Test was in 2021) while Atkinson has 19 wickets in two Tests at Lord's. On such numbers one could hang a bet on Archer at [3/1] with Sportsbook or Atkinson at 3/14.00.

Both are risks, though. Archer has played one Championship match this season. Atkinson has not bowled since England's beating of Zimbabwe. Both men are coming in off the back of injuries.

And What of Woakes? Is he, in fact, the reliable wager here at 11/43.75? It is hard not to think he warrants support on what, at this stage, looks likely to be the most helpful wicket of all. Despite two poor shows so far he is still pretty much the same bowler that has won the market five times in the last 14, a return of 35%.

So either we recognise that this is the best chance for England's most consistent bowler on the market to get a win on the most conducive pitch or we write him off and say: Woakes is done. That's nonsensical at this stage. 

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Top first-innings runscorer

Both markets for the top England and India bats appear to be hugely toss dependant. With the first hour - as usual - expected to be tricky at this venue, backing anyone in the top three before the flip seems a mistake. As stated in the match preview, batting gets easier over time. When the team bowling first gets its chance to score, it could be a completely different surface.

That means the likes of Ollie Pope is either a calamitous choice if England bat first but a perfectly reasonable one at an inflated 7/18.00. Like it or not, Pope still wins this market more than 18% of the time on two-year data.

Ben Duckett is another who would seem far less risky if England were batting second. Not because Duckett is a calamity in swinging conditions but you just don't want your top-bat pick going up against Jasprit Bumrah and Akash Deep with the new ball on a muggy first morning.

At this juncture it is probably worth considering where the value lies in the first match innings for either team. Few would be surprised if we saw the top three or four blown away and Lord's is a venue which rewards batters in the middle order.

For England it is difficult not to consider Jamie Smith value. Again. It's now four wins in 12 with Sportsbook making him a 13/27.50 chance. Sportsbook clearly think there is potential for a lower-order winner hence Atkinson at 17s and Brydon Carse at 19s.

For India, Shubman Gill will be all the rage at a boosted 9/52.80 for a first-innings 50. But could Nitish Kumar Reddy pinch a surprise win at 7/18.00? Reddy looked a bit of a mug in Birmingham but anyone who saw him tame the Australia attack knows he has something special. With the new ball a wrecking ball he might be a spot of value. Ravi Jadeja will also have support at 10s.

Top India first-innings bowler

Jasprit Bumrah, as the attack leader, will be given the choice of ends at Lord's. So will he plump for the Pavilion or the Nursery? Surely it will be the former.

If Bumrah decides to run in with the most famous backdrop in cricket behind him he will have the wind propelling him forward, the angle of the slope for a bit more momentum (although he could stray down legside until he finds his rhythm because of it) and, of course the slope to aid his infamous in-swinging yorkers. The Pavilion End is also known to be best for bowlers who have a straight tun up. Tick.

It means that Akash Deep, the hero of Birmingham, will either have to run into the wind, up an incline on the angle and have to make do with out-swingers. Swinging the ball back up the slope or moving it in off the seam is tricky. That, or Akash will bowl first change with Mohammed Siraj used as the workhorse.

What it all means is that Bumrah, the best bowler in the world, seems to have the best chance to take the most wickets. And with six wins in his last eight on the market the 15/82.88 that he notches is a bet.

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