England v India Third Test Tips: Bumrah and co primed to pile on misery for hosts

• India buzzing after levelling series

• Bumrah expected to return

• Expect early trouble for batters at Lord's

• Tourists primed for series success

• Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer

England v India
Thursday 10 July, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v India third Test team news

England have made one change to a bowling line-up which has looked powderpuff at times in the first two Tests. It was a particular puzzle that India found seam and swing at Edgbastion but the hosts could barely muster a wobble.

All four of the main bowlers were under pressure with Jofra Archer and Gus Atkinson included in the squad. Only Archer plays, though with a straight swap for John Tongue.  England have not deemed Shaoib Bashir surplus to requirements. 

Another option would have been to retain an extra pacer, drop Bashir and bring in Jacob Bethell for Ollie Pope. It is not great for England during a major series, and with another to come in the winter, that there is conern over so many roles. Zak Crawley is another under pressure. Pope must surely get a score or it's the axe.

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Woakes, Carse, Archer, Bashir

India are cockahoop after levelling the series. They now have the opportunity to pair Jasprit Bumrah with Akash Deep in a new-ball partnership which could spell trouble for the hosts. Indeed, India could even get stronger.

Although the temptation will be to not change a winning XI, returning the ace and unlucky Sai Sudharsan to the team instead of Nitish Kumar Reddy, who offered little in Birmingham, would make sense. There's also the nagging doubt that Washington Sundar is a better option than Kuldeep Yadav. A proper frontline spinner, particularly after such dry London weather, isn't the worst idea.

Possible India XI: Rahul, Jaiswal, Nair, Gill, Pant, Reddy/Sai, Jadeja, Sundar, Bumrah, Siraj, Akash

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England v India third Test pitch report

Five of the last eight Test results at Lord's have been won by the side bowling first. It fits the stereotype, then. A heavy, muggy start on Thursday will be the final piece of the jigsaw for the captain winning the toss. One cannot rule out early carnage as we have seen bowlers dominate in the past.

In the last five years the first-innings scores read: 212-427-121-416-176-165-132-364-378. That's five scores under 213. England, given those frailties at the top of the order in Crawley and Pope, will be all the rage for a short with the Bumrah-Deep axis steaming in. Currently the line is unders 291.5 but it is reasonable to expect that to tick up into the 300s.

In-play we would be expecting to be shorting England first wicket and then partnership runs in the first hour at least. It would be folly, though, to reckon that batting doesn't get easier. This is another surface which improves over time as witnessed by the fourth-innings runs per wicket average of 34.4. For the record, the first-innings mark is 26.5.

England v India third Test match prediction

We have to stick to what we know when it comes to betting. And the perceived wisdom is that India are the bet here with the caveat of bowling first. They have a better new-ball attack than England and a burgeoning toss bias on side. 

Indeed, it could be relentless for the hosts. Bumrah and Akash with Mohammed Siraj, who took six in the first dig in Birmingham, are a real handful. It is true that not all will be able to bowl down the slope in tandem and it may be that Siraj is asked to be the workhorse up the hill, unleasing Bumrah and Akash using the slope for in-duckers.

England could find themselves under significant pressure early on if the toss goes against them and with too many players under pressure in a big game, things could unravel very quickly. 

At the odds, the hosts are hard to justify. The 1.981/1 could only possibly be considered if they were bowling first. We don't rule out damage of their own. India are the bet bowling first, at a price which is unlikely to shift much lower than 2.407/5. No rain is forecast so the draw at 9.6017/2 is irrelevant.

England v India series bets

The bad news for England is that India have managed to win a Test without Bumrah. With the India spearhead fit and refreshed, he is now available for at least two more matches. It means a serious look at the series prices is needed.

The 2.447/5 that India manage to take the win has immediate appeal. It is very hard to see them failing to win at least one more game this summer. To that end, and the rarity of draws, backing 3-2 the pair at 3.5551/20 England and 5.44111/25 India is an option.

Given that it is also tough to reckon that both teams are as good as each other (we don't actually need to believe India are superior despite evidence currently suggesting they are), the latter bet shouts value.

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