India v Australia World Cup Tips: Aussies can shock hosts in chase

• Gill a doubt for India

• Chennai pitch spins

• Pitch could be a leveller

India v Australia
Sunday 8 October, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India v Australia World Cup team news

India face an anxious wait to see whether Shubman Gill is fit after he contracted dengue. If he's not ready, Ishan Kishan is likely to open the batting in his place.

Given the strong performance of spinners on this ground, India may gamble on three instead of three pacers.

Possible XI: Rohit, Gill/Ishan, Kohli, Rahul, Yadav, Hardik, Jadeja, Ashwin, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Siraj

Australia seem intent on lengthening their batting, which says something about their worries. Too often of late good starts have been frittered away.

They want as many all-rounders as possible and if Marcus Stoinis (hamstring) is fit he will play alongside Glenn Maxwell and Cameron Green with only two specialist pacers.

Possible XI: Warner, M Marsh, Smith, Labuschagne, Carey, Maxwell, Green, Stoinis, Cummins, Starc, Zampa

India v Australia World Cup pitch report

There is a chunky toss bias in favour of the chaser at the Chepauk - it stands at 64%. Not surprisingly, batting can be tricky. In March, however, Australia managed 269 and bowled out India 248 for the win. Par lines in the early 280s for the Aussies look a short with spinners to the fore.

India v Australia World Cup match odds

These sides have met six times this year in India with three wins apiece. The 1.728/11 India has been pretty consistent throughout that period.

But given the toss bias mentioned above, the possible absence of Gill and the potential for nerves in the home camp, the Aussies would rate value if they were to bat second.

Sure, we have concerns about their ability against spin but we do expect that 2.407/5 to hold with the toss their way.

India v Australia World Cup player bets

There's value all over the shop for top Aussie bat. David Warner at 3/14.00, Steve Smith at a boosted 7/24.50 and Alex Carey at 14/115.00 all rate bets on how often they win compared top the price. it is Warner, though, who gives up the biggest edge.

Shubman Gill has been boosted to 10/34.33 and although we'd be all over that normally we have to swerve given he's not trained and is under the weather.

With spin to the fore, the man of the match market offers Kuldeep Yadav at 12/113.00 and Ravi Jadeja, whose batting could be key, at 20/121.00.

Adam Zampa, player of the match on this ground earlier this year with four wickets, looks solid at 3/14.00 for top Aussie wicket-taker. He returns 52% of the time in the last two years.