New Zealand v Sri Lanka First ODI Tips: Hosts there to be taken on

• Kiwis skinny at 1.412/5

• Phillips a bet at 15/2

• Hasaranga 9/4 jolly

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Saturday 25 March, 01:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

New Zealand are not at full-strength. There is no Kane WIlliamson, Devon Conway, Trent Boult, Michael Bracewell or Mitchell Santner. Whether Matt Henry plays because his workload has been heavy recently remains to be seen.

Henry Nicholls may open the batting with Finn Allen. Mark Chapman may be asked to hold the side together as one of the world's premier all-rounders, Bracewell, has withdrawn injured.

Possible XI: Allen, Nicholls, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Shipley, Sodhi, Fegruson, Henry, Tickner

Sri Lanka's big guns are available for this one. Skip Dasun Shanaka returns to action, likewise spinner Wanindu Hasaranga. The latter should be well rested after stepping off the franchise merry-go-round.

The squad is strong. Maheesh Theekshana, for example, might not make the final XI. Angelo Mathews also adds batting depth and nous.

Possible XI: Nissanka. N Fernando, Kusal, Asalanka, Mathews, Dhananjaya, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Rajitha, Madushanka

Pitch report

Eden Park is one of the smaller venues in world cricket and we note the sixes tallies have been high as discussed on Cricket...Only Bettor. Keep an eye out for overs markets. Seven of the last 13 have gone over 15.5.

There have been only two ODI since Feb 2020. New Zealand's 273 was enough to hold off India while the latter's 306 was chased by the hosts. More than 300 could be considered a minimum batting first.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.412/5 with Sri Lankan 3.4012/5. A case can be made for the tourists at the odds. But the toss has to go their way.

There are two biases in play for the chaser. Six of the last ten at under lights have been won by the side fielding first. And it is also the home team's strength. They have won seven of their last 11.

If Sri Lanka bat second, we are confident their batting power and decent plans in the field - Hasaranga chiefly - can make this is a clsoe affair.

Tops value

There's not a huge amount to go on in terms of trends for top bats and bowlers. Glenn Phillips has a decent win rate with three wins from his last 19 on top Kiwi bat. The 15/2 from Sportsbook is eye-catching therefore.

For Sri Lanka, Shanaka is a favourite for punters but one win in 11 and odds of 6/1 do not scream value.

With the ball, Hasaranga is 9/4 for top Sri Lanka bowler. Look out for Kasun Rajitha, though, at 9/2 as he is building impressive numbers.