India v Australia First T20 Tips: Aussies can thrill in chase

India v Australia
Tuesday 20 September, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky 717

Team news

If India's failure to make the Asia Cup was a wake-up call to the T20 team's failings, think again. They look likely to be unbalanced again as they struggle for a sixth bowling option. The loss of Ravi Jadeja to injury in that regard is a hammer blow.

There is a way forward. But it means that the un-droppable Virat Kohli should move to the opener's slot where he he scored a ton against Afghanistan. That means no room for KL Rahul as Deepak Hooda has to combine as a late-order hitter and sixth bowler.

Rishabh Pant doesn't start in that XI unless he replaces Dinesh Karthik. Axar Patel and Ravi Ashwin are in a bate for a batting-spinner slot. There is no guarantee India pick six bowling options.

Possible XI: Rohit, Rahul, Kohli, Yadav, Hardik, Hooda, Karthik, Axar, Harshal, Bumrah, Chahal

The Australians are dropping like flies before a ball has been bowled. Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Marsh and Marcus Stoinis are out with injuries. One suspects it actually means they're being wrapped in cotton wool for the World Cup. David Warner is rested,

Nathan Ellis, Daniel Sams and Sean Abbott have been called up. None of them are in Australia's squad for the big one next month as they look to retain their title.

Opportunity knocks then for Josh Inglis as opener and Kane Richardson as pacer. Probably only Richardson can truly stake a claim to a starting berth. Likewise Tim David who could revolutionise a ponderous middle-order. Glenn Maxwell is vital as the sixth bowler.

Possible XI: Inglis, Finch, Smith, Maxwell, David, Wade, Agar, Cummins, Richardson, Zampa, Hazlewood

Pitch report

Mohali can be flat. Five of the last eight first-innings have seen at least 170 busted. There hasn't been a T20 there since 2019, however. The run rates for the last three years read: 8.7, 9.4 and 8.9. Sportsbook go 11/10 that both score 170. We're more like to take the even money of over 170.5 on the par line for first dig. Bet the runs line here.

How to play

India are 1.618/13 with Australia 2.608/5. The gap would appear to be justified given Australia losing two guaranteed starters in Starc and Stoinis.

But there's hope. For a start, the toss needs to go their way. Six of the last eight at the venue have been own by the chaser. Batting second also negates India's strength - they've won 12 of their last 14 chases.

Batting second, then, they are worthy of a trade. And you might get a bit of a bigger price at the break, too. Bet the match odds here.

Tops value

Rohit Sharma and Aaron Finch have been boosted to 10/3 and 7/2 respectively for top team bats. Kohli is 11/4. Pat Cummins has appeal as a big-priced wager for top Aussie at 40s. He has little to beat at 11/4 for top bowler, though. Ashwin is pricey at 5s for top India bowler. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

Read Ed Hawkins side market analysis here.

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