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India v Australia First T20 Tips: Reach for the Sky

Ed Hawkins
18 September 2022
2:30 min read

Yadav is a bet at 7/2

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Ed Hawkins previews the first contest between the sides from Mohali on Monday and expects runs in the first innings...

"Yadav is the man India should have built their team around, instead of moving him up and down the order to ensure there's always a place for Kohli"

(0.5pts) Back Yadav top India bat 4.57/2

Yadav best of the bunch

For all the hype and the big-gun reputations, there are some disappointing returns for India's selected batsmen on the top runscorer markets.

Rohit Sharma, supposedly feared the world overs, wins 16% of the time in the last two years. KL Rahul, his opening partner and one of the most consistent run-getters in IPL history, is winning at the same rate.

Sportsbook have boosted Rohit to 10/3 (a probability of 23%) and even that's a no go. Rahul is no better than 3/1 (a probability of 35%). He at least knows this venue well from Punjab days.

Then there's Virat Kohli, who is a conundrum. It is widely accepted by those who do not have an India bias that Kohli is not good enough to be in this team. He doesn't hit enough boundaries. he doesn't score quickly enough.

What he does do, though, is plod along at his own rate, making pretty scores and taking few risks. Quite attractive for top-bats. Hence seven wins in 22, plus two ties.

So punters are faced with the prospect of betting a guy at 11/4 (value on win rate) who they know isn't really good enough for the format. An extra comfort rug to those who do so with a sneer is that Kohli may even open, in which case it's also a wager on batting order.

More comfortable value is Suryakumar Yadav, who is getting 2.8% points at Sportsbook 7/2 on win rate versus probability.

This is the man India should have built their team around, instead of moving him up and down the order to ensure there's always a place for Kohli. He opened in the West Indies, one suspects, to ensure he didn't get a mountain of runs at No 3. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.

India top bat wins/matches last two years
KL Rahul 3/18
Kohli 7 2t/22
Yadav 7/28
Rohit 6/37
Pant 1 t/28
Hardik 1/8
Karthik 1/15

Finch flop?

Australia's top-bat market also focusses on players who are not performing. Aaron Finch's career in T20 is unlikely to survive post World Cup.

Finch has only three wins in his last 16, putting him closer to 4/1 status than even a boosted 7/2. The days when he was a reliable wager in this market are long gone.

He's also been one to tackle on for individual runs. Sportsbook go 5/6 under 19.5. That's a winner seven times in his last 14. here.

Australia top bat wins/matches last two years
Smith 1/12
Finch 3/16
Maxwell 2/15
Wade 2/15

Expect runs

We like to stick to what we know in betting. And one thing we do know about this fixture is that it should be played on a good batting wicket. Mohali has been a paradise for batters in IPL down the years.

Indeed, backing both teams for 170 has been a solid route to profit. That wager has 12 successes in the last 18. Sportsbook go 11/10. More than 170 has been a winner in first-innings by the same ration. We should be able to back over at around 2.255/4

That may also inform other wagers. Yadav has appeal at 12/1 for man of the match on a flat one and 6/1 for top match bat. here.

Pakistan v England analysis on Cricket...Only Bettor

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(0.5pts) Back Yadav top India bat 4.57/2
(1pt) Back more than 170 first-innings from 2.255/4

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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