England v South Africa First ODI Tips: Tough test for England

England v South Africa
Tuesday 18 July, 13:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England wobbling

At what stage do punters reassess this England team? A 2-1 reverse by India in the ODI and T20 series was characterised by batting flop after batting flop. Five times they failed to post even respectable scores.

New captain and coach combination Joss Buttler and Matthew Mott will be under pressure. England have not lost back-to-back ODI series since 2014.

Perhaps the most important lesson England have learnt is the importance of Adil Rashid. He returns after a pilgrimage. Matthew Potts has been added to the squad, despite his last List A appearance coming two years ago.

Phil Salt is putting pressure on Jason Roy for the opening slot. Otherwise England have given their middle-order time to find some form.

Possible XI: Salt, Bairstow, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Livingstone, Moeen, Willey, Rashid, Carse, Topley

SOuth Africa well balanced

South Africa are not at their strongest. Temba Bavuma and Kagiso Rabada are absent. Otherwise it looks like a squad high on individual ability.

Indeed, man for man they are unrivalled in terms of natural ability as discussed in our series preview. here

Jannie Malan is an emerging talent and might be capable of ushering in an era of South AFrican bullishness with the bat. Only Babar Azam has a higher average than Malan, David Miller and Rassie van der Dussen in the top 50 runscorers in the last three years.

With the ball, South Africa favour two spinners - Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi. Anrich Nortje will be the stock pace bowler with Lungi Ngidi likely to be expensive but extremely potent. Alternatively, all-rounder Marco Jansen could pip Ngidi for the final pace bowler's spot. Aiden Markram gives South Africa a sixth bowling option.

Possible XI: Malan, De Kock, Markram, Van der Dussen, Miller, Klaasen, Phehlukwayo, Maharaj, Shamsi, Nortje, Ngidi

Pitch report

In the last six domestic List A matches at the Riverside, runscoring has been tricky. Four of the first-innings have produced scores of 255 or lower. All of those four were won by the chaser. It was a low-scorer in this season's Blast, too.

Bowling first could be the way to go, particularly with early morning rain and cloud cover expected. With England struggling with the bat and South Africa hardly renowned for quick scoring, going under a runs par line in the 280s might make sense.

South Africa can shorten

Which South Africa turn up? the one which whitewashed India at home in January? Or the one which lost 2-1 to Bangladesh in March?

If it's the former then South Africa will rate value at 2.707/4. It is a note of cheer that Rabada was absent for the India success, too. Bet the match odds here

With England out-of-sorts with the bat it is hard to reckon that the tourists have the attack to do some significant damage. It is a varied and potent attack. Indeed, the spin pair of Maharaj and Shamsi could prove to be the difference.

It is worth risking South Africa to trade as favourites on a surface which could prove to be a leveller. In an ideal world they would bowl first and get seam and swing.

Tops value

Heinrich Klaasen, who has potential as a middle-order game-changer, and Malan both notched tons in decent warm-ups display for South Africa against the Lions. Klaasen could well be a chunky price worth taking with Sportsbook for top South Africa bat.

England recorded only one individual fifty in their series against India, a shocking stat. Throwing small change at big numbers lower down the order might pay off if that trend is to continue. Moeen Ali looks a potential wager.