England v South Africa ODI Series tips: Can Saffers finally cut loose?

Ed Hawkins
17 July 2022
2:30 min read

South Africa and De Kock must cut loose against England

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Ed Hawkins wonders whether the tourists can be inspired by Jannie Malan to play with freedom and aggression against England...

"South Africa have had three years or almost two decades to put it right. To do something. How's that going?"

The World Cup will be staged next year in India. If you're thinking 'that's coming around fast', you're right. The impact of Covid on scheduling has meant less game action, creating the impression that progress or regression in teams since the edition won by hosts England has been limited.

South Africa, who begin a three-match series against England on Tuesday, epitomise that.

The schedule is playing catch-up. Ludicrously, England would have finished their ODI series against India only a day before.

In the 2019 World Cup a talented group of South Africans produced a bitterly disappointing performance. They were content to shackled by a safety-first approach while the rest of the teams were desperately trying to release themselves.

Post tournament, the analysis of the campaign was familiar. They need to play with more freedom, more aggression. It's a well-worn epitaph. For years South Africa have been criticised for playing with the handbreak on. Michael Atherton wrote that in his autobiography. Which was published 19 years ago.

A core of brilliance

So South Africa have had three years or almost two decades to put it right. To do something. How's that going? Well, in the contest of the last competition they seem to be getting worse. They have one win in their last five series and have suffered a home defeat by Bangladesh and a 2-1 reverse to Sri Lanka.

And yet they remain tantalising.

South Africa have a core of brilliance. Quinton de Kock and Rassie van der Dussen are the best at what they do; opening batting blasting and middle-order managing. Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi are pacers of the highest quality.

Then there's spinner Tabraiz Shamsi, the fifth-highest wicket-taker in the last three years, and bowling all-rounder Andile Phehlukwayo who is sandwiched between Mitchell Starc and Shaheen Shah Afridi on the wickets list.

Rabada is missing from the squad this time but when one starts to look at the individuals to play around the other four, taking England on at an expected 1.68/13 in each game makes sense. Keshav Maharaj, the skipper, is top-class on data, David Miller and Heinrich Klaasen are finishers of repute, Marco Jansen one of the world's crop of new all-rounders and steepling pacer Anrich Nortje.

Twas ever thus, however. South Africa are 11.521/2 to win the World Cup. Bet the market here. The sort of price they always are. The sort of price which always looks value because, well, if they could just do this, if they could just do that.

Malan a reliable top-bat water

Yet then there's Jannie Malan. Could Malan finally be the catalyst for change? Malan didn't play in the last World Cup. But since his debut in 2020 he has averaged a shade under 60, striking at 87 often alongside De Kock. Of the top 50 runscorers in the last three years, only three have better averages. One is Babar Azam, the others are Van der Dussen and Miller.

Malan, importantly, is the most reliable top-bat wager in the study period. He has seven wins in 16. We can expect to be wagering him in each of the three matches.

Potentially bowler-friendly surfaces at two of the three venues could help South Africa bridge the gap. At Durham and Old Trafford South Africa are well-stocked to switch from seam and swing to spin respectively. At Leeds, in the third match, they must play with abandon on a probable road.

That contest could well provide the greatest pointer as to whether they truly have the mindset to reset. Currently, they lag behind the fastest scorers in the world as shown by the table below. Now is the time to catch up.

Cumulative batting strike rate last three years
England 98
India 95
New Zealand 93
Pakistan 92
South Africa 90
Sri Lanka 84
Bangladesh 79
West indies 78

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