England v New Zealand
Friday 10 June, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
England fail to convince
England are full of themselves after their second win in 18 Tests. They secured a five-wicket success despite letting slip a dominant position and in the end it will be categorised as a 'come from behind' win.
Bar the patriotic, few will be convinced. When the ball didn't swing (and Colin de Grandhomme didn't have a brain freeze) they were second-best.
It could be that they get plenty of bend at Trent Bridge to once again pull the wool over everyone's eyes. James Anderson has been hugely potent at the venue in recent years.
But what ever Anderson can do, Alex Lees, Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope will know the Kiwis can match. Another Joe Root special may be required.
England are waiting on the fitness of Jack Leach after concussion at Lord's. If he is okay, he is likely to 'replace' Matt Parkinson. It would be a surprise if any other changes were made to a winning team
Probable XI: Lees, Crawley, Pope, Root, Bairstow, Stokes, Foakes, Broad, Potts, Anderson, Parkinson/Leach
Nicholls to come back
New Zealand know they should be one-nil up. They had a golden opportunity to set England 400 but three wickets in three balls saw the sort of collapse that the hosts have trademarked.
In a possible reaction to that, Azaj Patel could lose his spot. Trent Bridge is not expected to spin much but Michael Bracewell's batting prowess (he has 11 first-class centuries and bats at No 4 for Wellington) may be considered more important than his tweak.
De Grandhomme is out of the series meaning that Henry Nicholls, who is expected to be fit, slots back in.
It could be New Zealand replace Patel with another pacer. Matt Henry is most likely. That looks like the most sensible option as using Daryll Mictchell and Bracewell as the fourth and fifth bowling options is a pressure-release valve for England.
Probable XI: Latham, Young, Conway, Williamson, Nicholls, Mitchell, Blundell, Bracewell, Jamieson, Southee, Boult
The average first-innings score in the last 13 at Trent Bridge is 292. That's probably a bit higher than many would have thought. Eight of those matches were won by the side batting first so the toss-winning skip should be prepared to be bold.
Just like at Lord's, the side that bats first will need to negotiate a tricky first hour. There's not a huge amount of confidence that either can manage it to be fair.
Shorting the first-innings runs lines may well be the best option. We can envisage a price in the mid 290s, possibly higher. Bet the runs lines here. India thumped England by nine wickets bowling first at the venue in August.
No rain is forecast currently for the first four days although there is plenty of cloud cover to cheer the bowlers.
Kiwis the bet
England are 2.111/10, New Zealand are 2.8815/8 and the draw is 5.49/2. As we have stated here, it's a poor price about England.
Brendon McCullum, the new coach, has had no time to implement the required technical work to bolster England's batting. It will be a long process which may eventually require different personnel.
On the plus side, England appear cohesive and 'up for it', which has not always been the case.
Is that enough against a smart and durable New Zealand? It would be a major surprise if it was. You can't fly by the seat of your pants in Test cricket. Quality will out and that is why the world champions are a bet. Bet the match odds here.
Is the 2.111/10 about England and the 6/1 with Sportsbook about Root being man of the match the same bet? Maybe. You could argue the same about Anderson at 9/1 on the latter market.
Root has been boosted to 21/10 for top runscorer honours for England in the first dig. Kane Williamson likewise for the Kiwis at 3/1.
Anderson is 9/4 joint favourite for top England bowler with Stuart Broad. Perhaps Matt Potts, given he matched Anderson at HQ, is the value at 10/3.
New Zealand bowlers who might fit the man of the match bill are Kyle Jamieson and Tim Southee at 10/1 the pair.
**Don't miss Ed's in-play advice for Trent Bridge at the end of each day's play
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