England v New Zealand Test Series Tips: Don't be fooled by lucky hosts

Three weeks ago on these pages, England's prospects under coach Brendon McCullum were summed up thus: short-term rush, long-term mush. After a thrilling win at Lord's against New Zealand the first part has played out. And boy! What a rush!

England were thrilling, chaotic, aggressive and, most importantly, lucky.

One is often at pains when analysing teams or players that a study sample, chunky at that, is required to come to a conclusion. Yet it is hard not to reckon that we have just seen a blueprint of how England will play under McCullum.

The problem is, they can't be lucky all the time. And that's a significant hitch. Let's go back to day three. New Zealand were cruising, their odds were shrinking, their lead increasing. A target of 350 appeared to be a minimum with Daryl Mitchell and Tom Blundell set. Then England managed something which is most likely never to occur again under McCullum's tenure. They took three wickets in three balls. The second of those was most fortuitous. Colin de Grandhomme had a wander and a quick-thinking Ollie Pope threw down his stumps. Even that dismissal in isolation may not occur again.

Bang. England were back in the game when, frankly, they had no right to be.

It won't always be that way. There is a suspicion that the success at HQ has merely papered over the cracks, which have been opened up time and time again in a hitherto sequence of one win in 17. Ruddy great fissures they are and, frankly, a fluke should not fool anybody.

If England are to be pedal to the metal, throwing caution to the wind and cajoling the crowd to roar them on they are likely to have plenty of moments which will be memorable or inspire. Rarely will they be dull. Rarely will their betting heats be tepid and, by Jove we should embrace their method if it means we have their opponents getting as big as 21.020/1 on day one and then trading as certainties 48 hours later.

But before the covers have come off, before the team sheets named or the coin tossed England, particularly at home, are not likely to be any value. They have already been chalked up at 2.206/5 favourites to win the second Test at Trent Bridge, which starts on Friday.

It's a stinker of a price. Bet the market here.

Not least because New Zealand were far more competitive than they should have been. Kane Williamson, Devon Conway, Trent Boult and Mitchell were still on IPL time. It would be a major surprise if each of them, and collectively, New Zealand have not improved for the run.

Moreover, England have chronic issues to solve. Problems which, in the aftermath of victory and song, are in danger of being forgotten. Instead of back-slapping and tub-thumping, it is the time for cold, hard analysis.

Specifically, England have a top three which is not worthy of the name. Poor Alex Lees has no idea where his off-stump is. He resembled some lost soul searching for a wallet among the Jubilee rubble on the nearby Mall. Zak Crawley is still brining his bat down at angle when he drives through the covers, leading to his dismissal in the first innings. Ollie Pope is closed off in his stance, interrupting access to the ball.

Pope has the most work to do of all. And he is batting in the worst position to do it. A Test team's No 3 should be rock-like, a technician with minimal flaws. Pope is not that. He is, as he has been in county cricket, a middle-order rungetter best when the ball is a little ragged and the bowlers not quite at full zest. That's not a backhanded criticism. Careers are built on such.

The big problem Pope has, and Lees and Crawley, too, is that when searching around this England dressing room for assistance they may feel dreadfully lonely. Where are the technical coaches to help? There's not one if the shape of McCullum. Marcus TrescothicK? Trescothick has been part of this England set-up for some of the worst of times.

Instead what Lees, Crawley and Pope may see is big smiles, chest beating and a grabbing of the Three Lions on the chest. Sure, there's a place for that but batters low on confidence, worried about their feet, bat angles, trigger movements and technique are not assisted in any way whatsoever. McCullum and Ben Stokes may proclaim to 'trust the process' and 'believe' but it's as much use a party pooper at Downing Street.

If England are not have more celebrations of the like seen in NW3, they really do have to wise up. And not rely on Joe Root producing the incomparable every game. It's why the 7/1 about New Zealand winning the series could be a very good price indeed.