Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat Big Bash Tips: Back Bartlett to bring the Heat at 3/1

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat
Wednesday 18 December, 08:15
TV: live on Sky Sports

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat Big Bash team news

Stars have had a a poor start. A loss to Perth was followed by news that Glenn Maxwell remains injured. At least Hilton Cartwright is fit after a nasty blow to his neck proved to be a false alarm. Joe Clarke plays his final game before Ben Duckett arrives.

Possible Stars XI: Clarke, Rogers, Harper, Stoinis, Webster, Cartwright, Curran, McKenzie, Couch, Siddle

Heat, the holders, have been weakened signfiicantly by unavailability. There's no Nathan McSweeney due to Australia committments while Spencer Johnson and Michael Neser are injured. The close-season loss of Josh Brown also hurts. They are unrecognisable from last term.

Possible Heat XI: Munro, Peirson, Renshaw, Bryant, Alsop, Walter, Wildermuth, Bartlett, Prestwidge, Swepson, Kuhnemann

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat Big Bash pitch report

In 40 out of 64 all time night games at the MCG the chaser has won. That trend holds in the last five years, too, with 15 winning from 24.

The runs per over in that 24 is just eight with 14 first-innings coming under 165.5 on the par line. Both teams look pretty reliable for an unders play regardless of who bats first.

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat Big Bash match prediction

Stars are 2.1411/10 with Heat 1.845/6. Heat drifted from 1.705/7 once their squad was announced. It is hard not to reckon Stars are the value in the chase with that price expected to hold.

Man for man there is little to choose between the teams and it would make sense to reckon that the flip will make the difference.

It is also true that, as it is early in the piece this season, backing Stars, a poor team who have limited nous, can wait.

In-play don't be surprised if we see a tight game. Heat's tail is long and that is something to be aware of in terms of match odds regardless of whether they bat first or second. They might be going well only to collapse.

Melbourne Stars v Brisbane Heat Big BashBig Bash player bets

We were waiting a price on Hilton Cartwright for top Stars bat now he has been named in the squad. We were expecting 6/17.00 considering that is the price he went off against Perth and didn't win. We know he wins at a rate of 28%. So the 13/27.50 is a nice surprise. That's a bet.

The standout pick, though, is Xavier Bartlett for top Heat bowler at 3/14.00. He returns at a rate of 29% even with Neser and Johnson in the team so he has very little to beat.

Colin Munro wins at 40% on top bat but we might wait to see him on a more easy-going surface than this one. Sportsbook go 23/103.30.

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