Big Bash 2025 Winner Market: 11/1 Melbourne Renegades might buck the trends

• Bowling economy has been key in Big Bash

• Player drain an issue for teams

• Renegades to make a fast start

• Back Hobart 7/18.00 to finish bottom

• Don't miss the team-by-team guide here

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Three clear title contenders

The Big Bash could be one of two things; a minefield with teams unrecogniasble from the XIs that started the season or as reliable as the passage of time itself. Perth Scorchers and Syndey Sixers have won eight of the 13 editions of the tournament.

Brisbane Heat's first title in 10 years, however, was not the shock it might have appeared last term. They were largely unaffected by the squad churn which sees a chunk of players leave for other leagues and they had been runners-up the season before.

They also proved the trend that the most economical bowling groups do best in this league. In the last three years no finalist has had an economy ranking outside the top two from the previous campaign.

Heat, then, with a ranking of number one with the ball, are the team to stop. Perth and Syndey, rated as first and second favourites will expect to improve on a third-placed and runners-up finish respectively.

But can we get the Heat beat? At 6.205/1 on the Exchange one will have to make peace with the fact that their batting has been neglected. They have lost their firestarter in Josh Brown and Nathan McSweeney has graduated to Australia.

The potential hammer blow for Brisbane is an injury to talisman Michael Neser. He could miss games early on.

Scorchers or Sixers?

Perth and Syndey could be primed for a return to dominance. They have met in the final five times and a repeat is priced at 10.09/1 on the Exchange.

There is much to like about Perth. The team is balanced and the bowling superb. But at 5.104/1, there could be room in their outright price because of the possibility of a sluggish start. Aaron Hardie, Cooper Connolly, Matt Kelly, Ashton Turner and Ashton Agar are all doubts for the opener on Sunday.

Once they get players back, they could be a bet. Their price is one to watch and return to.

Sixers are 6.05/1. In six years they have never failed to make the play-off and in two of the last three they have lost in the final. They are overdue, one might say. But are they overipe? Moises Henriques is not getting any younger and, although they pass the bowling test, the batting has often looked shy of inspiration in a fast-changing, power-obsessed format.

What Heat, Scorchers and Sixers have in common is the probability they may not be too badly impacted by the player drain to the ILT20 which is expected to begin on January 11. Instead, they each get big players returning from Australia duty.

Race to the bottom

If one's focus is more on a team which could really struggle, then Hobart Hurricanes fit the bill. The 7/18.00 about them finishing bottom is a fancy. Much of the rationale is based on a player exodus. Matthew Wade, Shai Hope, Peter Hatzolglou and Chris Jordan are all contracted to play ILT20.

Given that the SA20 is also a rival league, and is scheduled to take place at the same time, where are Hobart going to find adequate replacements? Wade, Hope and Jordan are the spine of the team

With three finishes outside the play-offs in four (and the odd one out when the fifth finisher went through) there isn't the pedigree, depth or nous to suggest they cope. It is true that they could be bigger in the market at some stage but that's the risk we take.

It may be that the wooden spoon market is more competitive than the one for the title. Melbourne Stars and Syndey Thunder look desperately short in ability and gumption. There is nothing tangible that suggests they will buck persistent failure.

A niggle for Glenn Maxwell isn't a great start for the Stars while Thunder skip David Warner could either inspire team-mates or make them perspire.

Renegades a trade at least

If we are wrong about player drain not having an impact, Melbourne Renegades could overturn a record of four out of five finishes at seventh or lower and stun everyone at 11/112.00.

Not that it would be a huge surprise in reality because of the squad they have built. Their bowling needs to tighten up but their recuritment has been super. Laurie Evans is the big eyecatcher after moving from Perth while Jacob Bethell and Jake Fraser-McGurk provide unrivalled youthful exuberance.

Alas all three are on the ILT20 list so marcus Harris, Mackenzie Harvey and USA all-rounder Hassan Khan will have to quickly adapt at the business end. It's just possible Fraser-McGurk succumbs to pressure to delay his departure.

We're betting on them to get wins early and hope they have enough in the tank to make a top-two finish pay with the 5.509/2 that they make the final. It's also possible that they represent outstanding trade value into fav status, as discussed in the team guides.

Ed's predicted BBL 2025 finishing positions

Scorchers
Renegades
Sixers
Heat
Strikers
Thunder
Stars
Hobart

Now read about trends, stats, rankings and win rates in the Bash team guide here