Brisbane made a mockery of the odds in beating Hobart on Sunday but, ahead of the rematch, Paul Krishnamurty is adamant the latter are superior...
"160 has been registered in only two of the last nine first innings at The Gabba...if Heat get first crack this time, laying 160 and 150 plus is strongly advised."
Hobart Hurricanes v Brisbane Heat
Wednesday, 08:15 GMT
Live on BT Sport
When these two met on Sunday, my preview started with a warning about the randomness of domestic T20 cricket, which can render the formbook meaningless. I then duly ignored that warning.
Can Heat defy the formbook again?
Heat could barely have registered their first win of the season in easier fashion, chasing a sub-par total with 16 balls to spare. A line-up that had hit pitifully few maximums since the start of last season now hit nine, at a ground where five would be an excellent total.
Costly as that misread was, it hasn't altered my analysis of these two sides.
Brisbane batters remain unreliable
Brisbane remain well short of top class, especially without the injured Chris Lynn. They are brittle, prone to low scores and lack the depth to secure a really big total. Their only bowler who might be described as elite standard is Mujeeb Ur Rahman.
In contrast Hobart have quality openers, finishers and a well-balanced bowling attack. Dawid Malan didn't sparkle on his seasonal debut but we should expect he will make a big impression soon. Likewise to a lesser extent, Keemo Paul.
It is notable that the market hasn't over-reacted to Sunday's surprise result. Hurricanes are trading slightly higher at around the 1.654/6 mark compared to 2.56/4 for Heat.
160 is a good first innings target
That is a perfectly fair assessment and not particularly contingent on the toss. 160 has been registered in only two of the last nine first innings at The Gabba. Reach that and the defending side will probably deserve favouritism.
Those numbers may well imply some value in the 1st Innings Runs market. 160 or more was odds-on, around 1.68/13, before Hobart stumbled to 148. I'm not excited about taking their batsmen on but if Heat get first crack this time, laying 160 and 150 plus is strongly advised.
Back Hurricanes if they drift
So far as the match odds are concerned, I'm defiantly repeating the failed strategy from Sunday. Place an order to back Hurricanes at 25% higher than the starting price - in this case 2.111/10. They deserve to start clear favourite and it doesn't take much for the odds to drift to that extent.
On the sixes front I'm more circumspect. Hobart are again favourites, this time at 5/6, to hit more maximums. On last season's evidence and the pedigree of these respective batting line-ups, that looks more than fair. Yet Heat led 9-2 on Sunday. Perhaps this market is just too random to back odds-on favourites.
Boosted batsmen are Short and Heazlett
Today's #OddsBoosts involve the favourites for each side's Top Runscorer and Top Clear Wicket Taker. For Hurricanes, D'Arcy Short is boosted to 3/1. Not bad given his overall record but equally taking 16/5 about Malan would have paid throughout his career.
Sam Heazlett is boosted to 10/3 for Heat in what looks a wide-open market. The middle-order are correctly priced tighter than one might expect, with number seven Jimmy Peirson a mere 9/1 chance.
The boosted bowlers are Riley Meredith and Mujeeb Ur Rahman - both to 10/3. For me, both of these markets look very close so no further bets are advised.
Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty
Paul's 2020/21 Big Bash P/L: