West Indies v Australia Second Test Tips: Play waiting game with Khawaja from 3s

• West Indies competitive in game one

• Grenada surface something of the unknown

• Smith straight back in for Aussies

• Hosts have major batting worries

• Khawaja can find form second time

West Indies v Australia
Thursday 3 July, 15:00
TV: Live on Willow

West Indies v Australia Second Test team news

West Indies were competitive for the first two innings in Bridgetown but eventually slid to a heavy defeat. It would be a surprise if they made changes to the XI with players given the chance to have another crack at the Aussies.

They do need more from the likes of Jomel Warrican, the vice-captain. The hosts might have discussed replacing John Campbell with Mikyle Louis. It's a move which will probably happen for game three if the opener fails again.

What was most impressive about Windies was the discicpline of the three-pronged pace attack. The catching was not good, although it couldn't be blamed for the defeat. The hosts may argue questionable third umpire calls did cost them, however. And they may have had a point in terms of consistency. 

Probable WI XI:  Brathwaite, Campbell, Carty, Kings, Hope, Greaves Chase, Warrican, Alzarri, Shamar, Seales

Australia have been boosted by the return of Steve Smith, who has recovered from a broken finger. He is been testing out the digit in baseball cages in New York and is expected to come straight back in at the No 4 position.

By the looks of it, they desperately need him. Cameron Green and Josh inglis at Nos 3 and 4 didn't have a clue as to how to play the ball which was leaving them on a length. Green probably holds on to his spot but it wouldn't be the worst idea if they returned to Marnus Labuschagne at first down, too and put Green back into the middle order. 

Sam Konstas, opening with Usman Khawaja, is another who appears to have no plan when the ball is darting off the seam. But he looks certain to get another go.

Probable Australia XI:  Khawaja, Konstas, Green, Inglis, Head, Webster, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Lyon

West Indies v Australia Second Test pitch report

There is limited study sample for this surface in Grenada. There has only been one Test since 2015 when a chaotic England were thumped by ten wickets, being rolled for 204 and 120. Three of the last four Tests have been won by the side bowling first and a batting average per wicket of 27.8 to 55.8 from first- to fourth-innings respectively suggests that pace bowlers could do damage early on.

The weather forecast for day one, however, is for scorching temperatures so it would take a very brave skip indeed to stick a team in. We have to use the wait-and-see method, of course, for the pitch but any repeat of Australia's whopping first-innings par line in the 430s may be a tempting sell. For West Indies, they will do well to bust 240 on averages against top six sides.

In-play we will be looking for when batting gets easier and it did seem in Bridgetown that once the ball went soft (maybe 15 overs) the variable bounce was less of an issue. Look for partnership runs plays on overs instead of long-term innings runs plays. There is rain around on days three and four. 

West Indies v Australia Second Test match prediction

West Indies are 6.4011/2, Australia 1.3130/100 and the draw 11.5021/2. A repeat of the ding-dong affair in the first two innings would be most welcome as it would give us a chance to get with the Aussies at inflated odds just before they overpower the hosts.

As well as West Indies bowled by hitting those lengths just outside off with metronomic ability (who knew Alzarri Joseph had it in him?), what ultimately won the day for the visitors was a vastly superior batting line-up. There may not be much to choose between the two pace attacks on a helpful surface but you just knew an Aussie was going to dig in at some stage.

In their second innings it was Travis Head, Beau Webster and Alex Carey. Given the frailties in the top order it would be no surprise if a repeat rearguard was required at some stage.

West Indies v Australia Second Test player bets

If you wanted further evidence at the lack of faith in the Windies batters, look at some of the overs/under runs quotes for their best from Sportsbook in the first dig. Brandon King at 18.5, John Campbell at 17.5, Mikyle Louis at 18.5. This is lower-order slogger territory, the sort of quote you'd expect for a No 8. In-play there could be riches to be had shorting these if there's something in the pitch.

Smith gets a 13/53.60 quote for top Aussie bat but it's a 17.5% win rate n the last two years and that's not even close to value. Head is 7/24.50 and he looks like the main man these days. For the Windies, lower-order grafters like Shai Hope, back in after strong performances in white ball, and Justin Greaves may have appeal for tops in dig one at 9/25.50 and 17/29.50 respectively. 

Our main bet will be Usman Khawaja to land that 30% win rate in the last two years, excelling as he does in the second innings. We should get at least 3/14.00. 

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