Australia v South Africa World Test Championship Player Bets: Back Smith to star

• Smith's record stands up to scrutiny

• His move away from opening keeps us keen

• Bavuma rock-solid for runs on form

• Top Aussie bowler market competitive

• Read Ed's full match predictions HERE

Australia v South Africa
Wednesday 11 June, 10.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Top Australia first-innings bat

Steve Smith should feel right at home when he pitches up at Lord's in Australia's quest for their second WTC title. His record at the ground cossets a player who has had his travils while simultaneously concerning a South Africa team who know he could take the game away from them.

In nine innings at HQ, Smith has two centuries and two fifties. That doesn't really tell the full story of his dominance because in his first four he was batting as an all-rounder and hadn't transformed into the run machine that we know today.

His 2015 epic of 215 in the Ashes still gives England nightmares. Scores of 58, 92, 110 and 34 followed. The immediate port of call, then, is his top-bat price for the first dig. Sportsbook offer 10/34.33. We are slaves to win rate on these pages and Smith's return of just 15% in the last two years suggests he's not a follow.

The caveat to that stat is the fact that Smith had an ill-fated run as opener. In four games he averaged 28 with one fifty. He lost his confidence and his trigger movements were off. A return to No 4 was a return to the 'old' Smith. In his last eight innings he has hit four centuries, including a special 140 against India at the MCG.

In a contest where the ability to knuckle down and leave the ball well could be crucial, there are few better than Smith. Sportsbook also offer 5/16.00 about a first-innings ton, 6/42.50 for a 50 and his runs at over 36.5 at 5/61.84.

Second time around, we note the win rate for Usman Khawaja. The opener has an excellent record at winning top second-innings with a 31% hit rate. Look out for prices of around 4/15.00. Also consider Pat Cummins at big prices. His one win in the last two years has come in the second dig.

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Top South Africa first-innings bat

Temba Bavuma may have little to beat for top South African bat in a game which could define his career. Bavuma, set up for red-ball specialism although he would argue otherwise, looks rock-solid to do the Smith role and drop anchor.

And by Jove could the Saffers need it. Three of the front four are built to do destructive damage in a completely different format. It is not unreasonable to reckon that Bavuma will be required to launch some sort of rescue mission. He is protected from the new ball at No 5 and often at this venue that middle-order sanctuary is where the runs come from.

In terms of study samples to avail ourselves of the 4/15.00 there is little get excited about. Bavuma has played only seven Tests. Sure, he has won three times but we can't start shouting about sensational value.

It is possible 40-odd wins this for South Africa, making Bavuma more likely than most because of his application and career average of 40 against the Aussies. He has also averaged more than 50 in his last two full years of Tests. The safe option with Bavuma is over 26.5 runs at 5/61.84. It's a mark he has passed on each of his last seven outings. 

A big-priced winner is not ruled out. Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj catch the eye at 16s and 35s. Maharaj had a decent hit on his last visit to Lord's. He could also be another to follow in the second dig. There is also interest in Kagiso Rabada at 100/1101.00. He has won in England before on this market and his batting is much improved. 

Top first-innings bowler

The top Australia bowler market is extremely competitive. As one might expect for the unit which has fired them team to this stage. There is less than five per cent between Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood (in that order) on two-year win rates.

Sportsbook make Starc and Cummins the joint favourites at 23/103.30. Starc has the best return at 27.7 with Cummins on 23.5. Lyon is second to Starc on 25% and Hazlewood at 23.

It could be that Lyon is the value, then. Sportsbook make him a 4/15.00 chance. Early season poor weather and moisture are concern for a spinner in England in first-innings. Lyon did lose the market on his last visit on a three-wicket dead heat at Lord's in 2019 but that was mid August.

For South Africa, Kagiso Rabada will prove popular at 15/82.88. He has three wins in ten in two years. He has an excellent record against Australia with 49 wickets in 18 innings at a strike rate of 39. 

Now read the match predictions for Australia v South Africa HERE