Australia v South Africa World Test Championship Tips: Aussies hard to stop

• Australia hot favourites for the title

• Lord's conditions may favour the bowlers

• South Africa unlikely finalists

• Third- and fourth-innings overs plays a strategy

• One draw in last eight at HQ

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Australia v South Africa
Wednesday 11 June, 10.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia v South Africa WTC team news

Australia are expected to deploy Marnus Labuschagne as opener in their bid for consecutive World Test Championship titles. Sam Konstas, considered too gung-ho for conditions, will miss out.

They must also decide on their middle-order balance. With Beau Webster in posession in terms of the all-rounder role, Australia can either go with Josh Inglis or Cameron Green. Given that Green has been fielding in the slip cordon in training it suggests he will get the nod.

It's as you were with the ball. The holy trinity of pace options are all fit and firing while Nathan Lyon's canny spin could be more than useful.

Possible Australia XI: Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Inglis/Green, Carey, Webster, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

South Africa are relying on a crop of players who have been fed a diet of IPL white ball to bridge the gap in the five-day format's biggest game. Six of their potential XI had stints in India.

Indeed, three of the top four would make a decent IPL batting order with Aiden Markram, Ryan Rickleton and Tristan Stubbs not exactly grafters. Can they switch to red ball mode in tough conditons against Starc-Hazlewood-Cummins?

Temba Bavuma is crucial in the No 5 slot while late runs are possible from the likes of Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj. Wiaan Mulder, a proper player, probaly misses out with the final bowling slot between Lungi Ngidi and Dane Paterson. 

It is hard not to feel that Kagiso Rabada, the one player who gets into this Aussie team, needa a big performance. He is superb and could rattle their rivals early on. 

Possible SA XI:  Markrkam, de Zorzi, Rickleton, Stubbs, Bavuma, Bedingham, Verreynne, Jansen, Maharaj, Rabada, Paterson/Ngidi

Australia v South Africa WTC pitch report

Lord's could offer favourable bowling conditions in the first-innings at least. It has been a cold and wet London summer so far so moisture and cloud cover may well mean the team winning the toss bowls first. However, it is a surface which gets better over time.

In line with the trend for fourth-innings runs the gape between batting averages between first and fouth is notcieable; 27.1 versus 31.5. Overs on runs lines is something to be considered in, say, the third when buys are cheap.

For the first dig we might see something like the 330 region for Australia and South Africa 40 or 50 less. More than 380 has busted once in the last eight at HQ. There has been only one draw. We will be looking to short South Africa runs given the lack of prep time between formats for their players. 

When Australia won there in the Ashes the pitch was a bizarre one with bowlers forced to bang it in halfway down with batters continually caught out hooking and pulling. There have been signs of decent batting conditions in the Championship with six scores of more than 350 in four.

Australia v South Africa WTC match prediction

Australia are 1.4740/85 with South Africa on the drift to 4.1031/10 and the draw at 11.521/2. It is not the red-hot heat that the ICC had in mind when devising this format, which will be criticised before, during and after the so-called 'showpiece'.

That's because it pits a good Australia team against a South Africa one which have nipped in the back gate without buying a ticket. They have played only 12 games in the last two years, largely winning matches against the rag tags of the Test world; West Indies, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan. Their C team was thumped by the Kiwis at the start of 2024. They did manage to beat India by an innings at the end of 2023.

However, that is hardly preparation for a ruthless Aussie team which have all the know-how when it comes to the big games. It is not unreasonable to expect a dominant Australia performance given concerns about South Africa's top-order.

To that end, we could be in for a quick finish. This would be a surprise if the match lasted five days. Do check the exchange for the relevant market. The only potential impediment to that may be the weather forecast. It is pretty good, although changeable. There is a bit of rain around on days two and three. Any sort of shortening on the draw price because of heavy runs in first digs accompanied with lost overs mean we will be looking for a lay at anything below 3.002/1.

On Sportsbook, Australia are 23/103.30 to win, land the highest opening partnership and a first-innings lead. Another special spot comes from Sportsbook. They offer 6/42.50 that a wicketkeeper takes a catch in each of the four innings (loser if there are less). 

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